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【Gold TA 26/02】美债遭惨烈抛售,黄金美股齐暴跌

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昨日回顾:【Gold TA 25/02】UST 10yr突破1.4,黄金维持看跌展望


SPDR GLD ETF持仓较昨日变动:-6.12 吨

COT GOLD截至02.16净头寸变动:-16438 lots,long change -5743 lots,short change 10695 lots


昨日真热闹,在多位联储政策制定者发表对债券利率上升感到喜闻乐见的言论后,美债遭遇惨烈抛售,UST各期限利率大幅飙升,10yr连破1.5和1.6两个关键位置,美股终于在利率走高环境下撑不住了,三大股指均暴跌,纳斯达克最为惨烈,黄金搭乘东风,跌了30多美金,债股金齐跌,罕见哦。

【Gold TA 26/02】美债遭惨烈抛售,黄金美股齐暴跌

*UST各期限收益率、Gold和DXY


数据方面,昨日公布的最新初请有所改善,这应该是官员们乐于看到的,耐用品订单大幅走高,说明制造业稳步复苏,不过制造业仅占美国经济的11.9%,难以扛起复苏大旗,关键还是看接下来的服务业的数字,受近期利率走高影响,抵押贷款利率升至6个月新高,二手房签约量降至6个月新低,相信不断走高的利率会影响到经济复苏步伐,不知道昨晚FED各位老大有没有后悔说这么乐观的话。


黄金方面ETF昨日又减仓了,符合金价表现,现在最担心的是,UST收益率短期这么强,明显有止损盘退出了,做收益率曲线陡峭的交易估计挺受伤,市场目前完全忽略鲍威尔坚持的购债政策短期不变,通胀只是暂时性上升的观点,债券有点太强了吧,现在5年期都已经上来了,那要不要YCC干预一下呢?


4小时方面,黄金完美受阻于中枢A,符合前文分析预期——【Gold TA 25/02】UST 10yr突破1.4,黄金维持看跌展望,后期暂时性看惯性下跌后反弹。

【Gold TA 26/02】美债遭惨烈抛售,黄金美股齐暴跌

*黄金4h


1小时看,价格维持a-A-b的下跌走势结构,b段力度较强,暂时不看背离,形态上支持反弹后继续跌,但是要关注节奏,这里比较复杂,要把债券市场可可能带来的影响考虑进去,细节走势需持续跟踪。

【Gold TA 26/02】美债遭惨烈抛售,黄金美股齐暴跌

*黄金1h


金融资产定价之锚——美债,这个还是要重点跟踪的,像昨天这种情况比较罕见,不会持续下去,接下来就期待近期FED官员是否会出来口头表达YCC之意了,期待吧。



(完)#FxPro浦汇##XAU/USD#






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