The Euro has clearly struggled during the trading session on Friday, as we tried to recapture the 1.17 level only to fail spectacularly. By the time New York got on board, the Euro was testing the bottom of the hammer from the previous session which quite frankly needs to hold if there is any chance of recapturing 1.17. At this point, I think it becomes obvious that the Euro is a “sell on the rallies” currency, as the US dollar continues to pick up strength due to global fear and the like.
The question is not so much as to what direction you should be trading, but rather when you should short the market. I believe at this point we are probably going to continue to see volatile behavior, but I also believe that we are going to go looking towards 1.15 handle sooner or later. A bit of a bounce would not be out of the question, but I suspect somewhere near the 1.17 level the sellers will come back in, and most certainly by the 1.18 level.
The 50 day EMA is currently sitting just above 1.17 as well, so for what that is worth, it may attract a certain amount of selling pressure also. As long as there is demand for US Treasuries, and right now there is huge demand, that will continue to support the idea of a stronger US dollar in general. As fear increases, people will be running towards the safety of the greenback. #EUR/USD##FX#
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