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本周晚些时候即将公布的美国通胀报告料显示,10月总体CPI下降至8.0%,前值8.2%,而核心CPI料下降至6.5%,前值6.6%。如果实际数据符合下行预期,黄金可能反弹。在美联储看来,工资或就业持续增长会继续刺激需求,这在高通胀背景下是负面消息。因此它继续积极收紧货币政策,即使这意味着给经济带来“痛苦”。解决方案当然可以来自供应方面,例如大量空缺职位得到填补,使公司能够生产更多商品和服务,或者在乌克兰局势逐渐平稳的情况下缓解食品和能源价格上涨压力。但有证据表明供应链已经显着改善。 公布最新数据显示,市场预计美联储在12月会议上至少加息50个基点,但连续第五次加息75个基点的可能性不到45%。一些美联储决策者上周五(11月4日)表示,他们继续考虑在下次政策会议上放慢加息步伐。

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