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FiveThirtyEight:拜登赢得大选的几率为76.7%; ① 根据民调分析机构FiveThirtyEight选举预测模型的最新预测,乔·拜登赢得大选的几率从9月24日的76.6%升至76.7%。预计他将赢得538张选举人票中的352票。 ② 该模型预测唐纳德·特朗普的获胜几率为22.8%,低于9月24日的22.9%。 ③ 9月25日,特朗普的全国民意调查平均支持率为43.1%,与9月24日持平。 ④ 拜登的全国民意调查平均支持率从9月24日的50.2%升至9月25日的50.3%

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拜登估计是和上一次的希拉里一样,开始几个州都领先,从半数开始后面特朗普逆转,就像逆转希拉里一样逆转拜登;

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