Morning briefing: Euro is heading up 1.0750

Good Morning!

The Dollar Index has dipped towards 105.50 while Euro is heading up 1.0750 after downbeat US GDP Q/Q% for Q1 2024 (Advance Estimate) came in at 1.60% from 3.40% in Q4 2023. EURJPY can rise towards 168 while above 166. Aussie and Pound have potential to rise towards 0.66 and 1.2550/1.26. USDJPY trades higher ahead of the BOJ meeting but needs to break above 156 for increased bullishness. USDCNY might trade within 7.24-7.25 for a while. EURINR may remain ranged within 88.50-89.50/90 region. USDINR can remain below 83.40 and trade within 83.40-83.20 for a while.

The US Treasury yields have risen sharply after the GDP data failed to meet the market expectation. The US grew (advanced estimates) at 1.6% in the first quarter much lower than the market expectation of 2.4%. The Treasury yields have room to rise further from here. The US PCE data release today is important to watch. The German yields continue to move up. If the momentum continues, there is more room to rise from here. The 10Yr and 5Yr GoI have moved up further there by keeping intact the broader uptrend. The yields can rise more.

Dow Jones has fallen sharply and may fall further on a break below 37600. DAX has fallen as the resistance at 18200 held and looks bearish to dip further from here. Nifty has risen sharply, breaking above 22500 and while this break sustains, a further rise can be seen in the near term. Nikkei has scope to bounce back while above 37500-37000. Shanghai to remain ranged within 3000-3100 for a while.

Brent to trade within $85-90 for a while. WTI has risen towards its resistance at $84. A break above $84 is needed for increased bullishness, else it may continue to trade within $84-80 range. Gold and Silver can remain ranged within 2370-2350 for a while. Copper has risen above 4.55 and has scope to rise further in the near term. Natural Gas has bounced as the support at 1.90 has held well.

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