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What A Difference A Day Makes

Chaos Clinic for 2/26/2021 These two charts show the S&P EMini for the past two days. The charts cover the eight hours between 8:15 AM to 2:15 PM Eastern time. The top chart is for 2/25/2021. In the nightly hotline email the night before, I warned it was "A two Moon day with Moon timelines near

Weekly outlook: The return of carry trades

Looking at the performance of currencies so far this year, it looks like a typical “risk-on” move: the commodity currencies have gained and the safe-haven JPY and CHF have weakened. GBP is the odd one out, as its path has been determined by the successful rollout of the vaccine in the UK. There’s on

USD: Rally seen as a temporary FX market correction rather than the start of a sustained rebound – MUFG

The sharp move higher in US yields has finally started to spill over more into the FX market were a correction is now underway, point out analysts at MUFG Bank. The see that recent outperformance of high beta commodity currencies and the GBP is now reversing, creating a more supportive backdrop for

USD/CAD resumes upside and rises above 1.2700

USD/CAD extends rebound from multi-year lows above the 20-day SMA. US dollar strengthens during the American session amid risk aversion. The USD/CAD resumed the upside during Friday’s American session and climbed to 1.2707, reaching the highest level in a week. The pair has now risen more than 200 p

AUD/USD closes in on 0.7700 as USD continues to gather strength ahead of weekend

AUD/USD is losing more than 2% on Friday. US Dollar Index continues to push higher as T-bond yields recover from daily lows. Core PCE Price Index in US stayed unchanged at 1.5% in January. After recovering toward 0.7800 in the early American session, the AUD/USD pair lost its traction and dropped to

US: Personal income in January largely reflecting the stimulus checks – Wells Fargo

During January, personal income jumped 10%. Analysts at Wells Fargo explain the number reflects stimulus checks that also boosted spending. Despite the 2.4% jump in January personal spending, they point out the faster gain in income pushed the personal saving rate higher to 20.5% in January. Key Quo

WTI remains supported above $62.00, but weighed by buoyant US dollar

WTI is lower on the final trading day of the month amid a stronger USD, but remains support above $62.00. It’s been a good month for crude oil markets, mainly driven by demand outlook optimism. A buoyant US dollar into the month-end is weighing on USD-priced crude oil markets on the final trading da

Banxico to keep policy rate at 4% next month – Capital Economics

"Mexico has been one of the hardest hit EMs during the recent rout in global bond markets," notes Capital Economics' Nikhil Sanghani. "The 10-year local currency government bond yield has jumped by almost 60bp to 6.30% this week. Meanwhile, the peso has dropped by around 2.5% against the dollar." Ke

Fibonacci retracements analysis: Bitcoin and Ethereum

BTCUSD, “Bitcoin vs US Dollar” As we can see in the H4 chart, after failing to reach 261.8% fibo at 63300.00, BTCUSD started plummeting due to divergence on MACD. The situation may indicate the start of a new mid-term or even long-term correction. The first descending impulse has already reached 23.

Japanese Candlesticks analysis: USDCAD, AUDUSD, USDCHF

USDCAD, “US Dollar vs Canadian Dollar” As we can see in the H4 chart, after forming a Hammer reversal pattern not far from the support level and reversing, USDCAD has reached the channel’s upside border. In this case, the next downside target is at 1.2440. After that, the asset may continue forming

The euro took a break again

After updating its six-week high, EURUSD is correcting. The major currency pair continues the correction on Friday afternoon. The current quote for the instrument is 1.2136. The second estimate on the US GDP for the fourth quarter of 2020 published yesterday was rather neutral and showed 4.1% q/q ag

ECB's Visco: Extreme prudence must be used before exiting support measures

Central banks must use "extreme prudence" before exiting support measures, European Central Bank Governing Council member Ignazio Visco told G20 on Friday, as reported by Reuters. Additional takeaways "Acknowledging that inflation expectations are on the rise but the view is that before getting out

ECB's Stournaras: ECB should accelerate PEPP purchases

European Central Bank (ECB) policymaker Yannis Stournaras said on Friday that the ECB should accelerate the purchases within the Pandemic Emergency Purchase Programme (PEPP), as reported by Reuters. Additional takeaways "There’s no fundamental justification for a tightening of nominal bond yields at

NZD/USD’s sharp reversal continues but pair finds support at 0.7250

NZD/USD has sold off more than 200 pips from Thursday’s highs above 0.7450. But the pair is finding support in the 0.7250 area amid some technical confluences. ING thinks NZD will outperform AUD going forward given a less dovish RBNZ. Friday is seeing another sharp drop in NZD/USD. At present, the c

US: NY Fed's GDP Nowcast rises to 8.7% for Q1 after this week's data

The US economy is expected to grow by 8.7% in the first quarter of 2021, the Federal Reserve Bank of New York's latest Nowcasting Report showed on Friday. "News from this week’s data releases increased the nowcast for 2021:Q1 by 0.4 percentage point," the publication read. "Positive surprises from p

Pull-up Update