FX next week: Inflation vs GDP, NFP, 14 currencies

Inflation at 3.5% and GDP at 3.4% offers  economics and markets on the brink. Inflation's rise yesterday implies by traditional Correlations a lower GDP to target the bottom at 2.47. GDP's big line break is located at 3.84 while Inflation averages trade from 3.47 to 4.05 vs the 1 year average at 6.14.

Longer term, GDP at 3.84 and Inflation 6.14 stands as the current alignment however the data requires a revised update. Inflation averages to 6.14 runs as 3.47, 4.05, 4.58, 5.47, 5.72. GDP's next release is scheduled for April 25th and 1 day prior to the next BOJ meeting on April 26.

USD/JPY at 152.00's is partially explained by positive correlations to the 10 year yield. From 1 to 5 year averages for USD/JPY and the 10 year yield, Correlations run +87%, +81%, +96%, +97%, +95%. USD/JPY bottomed in December 2023 at 140.00's while the 10 year traded 3.78.

Both USD/JPY and the 10 year at 4.54 trade massively overbought. USD/JPY averages 150.11, 145.51, 140.59, 131.36, 125.06, 121.73 Vs the 10 year yield 4.089, 3.75, 3.033, 2.498, 2.341.

NFP rose by 300,000 and is situated at 2 X's current averages from  1 to 5 years at: 167,337, 166,011, 164,613, 163, 473, 163, 532. A lower GDP will coincide to a fall in NFP jobs.

The question what does NFP mean to the Fed, Monetary Policy and interest rates. NFP runs +90% and 80% Correlations to Fed Funds. The NFP / Fed Funds relationship is strong and significant to the Fed and Monetary Policy.

The BOJ won't intervene on USD/JPY and not at 154.00, 155.00 or 156.00.

BoJ interest rates

5 day Average = 0.0764.

10 day = 0.0686.

15 day = 0.0431.

20 day = 0.03.

25 day = 0.0228.

30 day = 0.0518,

60 day = 0.0117.

Next week

EUR/USD V DXY  5 year averages at 99.00 and 92.00 vs EUR/USD remains rulers of the markets for the next few weeks unless a significant move occurrs. DXY and USD contains a long way lower and EUR/USD higher.

EUR/USD Bottoms at 1.0696, 1.0661 and 1.0640. EUR/USD trades massive oversold and just above 1.0696. Net break 1.0822 targets 1.0840's.

USD/JPY next bih line is located at 153.40. Shorts again targets 150.00's by 152.58, 151.76 and 150.94.

USD/JPY runs JPY cross pairs. GBP/JPY shorts at 193.00's targets 191.95 and 190.68. EUR/JPY shorts at low 165.00's targets 164.31 and 163.39.

GBP/USD bottoms at 1.2551 and 1.2538. Big break at 1.2617 targets 1.2670.

AUD/USD above 0.6554 targets 0.6574. NZD/USD above 0.6051 targets 0.6098.

USD/CHF targets 0.8988 and USD/CAD targets 1.3572 and 1.3564. Long term targets 1.3300's.

CHF cross pairs all trade deeply overbought and short is the only trade alongside short USD/CHF.

GBP/AUD longs and shorts 1.9252.

GBP/NZD and EUR/NZD contain a long way to drop to 2.0600's and 1.7300 EUR/NZD.