Timing of Easter boosts March spending

Danish card data suggests that spending excluding energy increased 7.0% in March compared to the same month last year. Consumer prices excluding energy increased 1.6% over the same period, meaning that in real terms spending was up 5.3%, which is the highest growth in real spending since April 2022.

The early timing of Easter in March, rather than April like last year, gave a boost to the monthly spending. We will probably see lower y/y growth rate in April, when we will see the opposite effect of only one Easter holiday in April.

Particularly Wednesday before Easter showed record high spending, as it was both the last shopping day before the holiday closures, and a pay day. In grocery stores spending was up 15% compared to Wednesday before Easter in 2023, (which did not coincide with salary payments). The timing of Easter also affected the monthly aggregate in grocery stores, where the March spending was 6.2% higher than same month last year, despite a decline in food prices over the same period.

We saw an even stronger effects from earlier holidays in do-it-yourself stores and cinema spending, which was up 51%. Airlines and travel agency spending weakened, which is probably an effect of the early timing of Easter, but will be worth having an eye, as we have seen a tendency for lower spending growth here for a while now.

Overall households are getting a lending hand from inflation, posting below 1% for two consecutive months now, and wage growth at 5.3% for Q1. This should support spending in 2024.

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