Gold price trades with modest losses amid stronger USD; downside seems limited
- Gold price edges lower on Friday amid some follow-through US Dollar buying interest.
- The Fed’s projected three rate cuts in 2024 will likely cap the USD and limit losses for the metal.
- Traders look forward to Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s speech for short-term opportunities.
Gold price (XAU/USD) struggles to capitalize on the overnight late bounce from the 100-hour Simple Moving Average (SMA) support near the $2,166-2,165 area and edges lower during the Asian session on Friday. As investors looked past the Federal Reserve's (Fed) policy update on Wednesday, the US Dollar (USD) made a solid comeback in the wake of the optimism around the US economic growth. This, along with elevated US Treasury bond yields and the prevalent risk-on environment, are key factors exerting some downward pressure on the safe-haven precious metal.
The downside for the Gold price, however, seems cushioned amid a less restrictive policy stance by the Fed, signalling that it remains on track to cut interest rates by 75 basis points this year. The outlook keeps a lid on any further rise in the US bond yields, which might hold back the USD bulls from placing fresh bets and act as a tailwind for the non-yielding yellow metal. This makes it prudent to wait for strong follow-through selling before confirming that the XAU/USD has topped out in the near term as traders now look to Fed Chair Jerome Powell's scheduled speech for a fresh impetus.
Daily Digest Market Movers: Gold price is pressured by modest USD strength; Fed rate cut bets to lend support
- The US Dollar looks to build on the previous day's strong recovery from a one-week low touched in the aftermath of the FOMC decision and is seen undermining the Gold price on Friday.
- The Federal Reserve upgraded its economic growth projection and now sees real GDP to hit 2.1% by the end of this year as compared to the previous estimate of 1.4% in December.
- Moreover, policymakers raised the forecast for core inflation to 2.6% from 2.4% and now see the unemployment rate at 4% for 2024, slightly lower than the 4.1% previously projected.
- The outlook remains supportive of elevated US Treasury bond yields and is seen acting as a tailwind for the USD, though the projected less restrictive policy might cap the upside.
- On the economic data front, the US Department of Labor (DOL) reported on Thursday that Initial Jobless Claims fell to 210K in the week ending March 16 from the 212K previous.
- US Secretary of State Antony Blinken said that gaps are narrowing in the ongoing talks aimed at reaching a ceasefire in Gaza and the release of hostages, boosting investors' confidence.
- Fed Chair Jerome Powell's speech later during the early North American session will be looked for more cues about future policy decisions and provide a fresh impetus to the XAU/USD.
Technical Analysis: Gold price is likely to find decent support near the weekly swing low, around the $2,146 area
From a technical perspective, some follow-through selling below the overnight swing low, around the $2,166 area, or the 100-hour SMA, might expose the $2,146 support or the weekly trough. A convincing break below the latter could drag the Gold price further towards the next relevant support near the $2,128-2,127 zone en route to the $2,100 round figure.
On the flip side, the $2,200 psychological mark now seems to act as an immediate hurdle, above which bulls might aim to challenge the record high, around the $2,223 zone touched on Thursday. Meanwhile, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) on the daily chart – though has eased from higher levels – is still flashing overbought conditions and warrants caution.
Gold FAQs
Gold has played a key role in human’s history as it has been widely used as a store of value and medium of exchange. Currently, apart from its shine and usage for jewelry, the precious metal is widely seen as a safe-haven asset, meaning that it is considered a good investment during turbulent times. Gold is also widely seen as a hedge against inflation and against depreciating currencies as it doesn’t rely on any specific issuer or government.
Central banks are the biggest Gold holders. In their aim to support their currencies in turbulent times, central banks tend to diversify their reserves and buy Gold to improve the perceived strength of the economy and the currency. High Gold reserves can be a source of trust for a country’s solvency. Central banks added 1,136 tonnes of Gold worth around $70 billion to their reserves in 2022, according to data from the World Gold Council. This is the highest yearly purchase since records began. Central banks from emerging economies such as China, India and Turkey are quickly increasing their Gold reserves.
Gold has an inverse correlation with the US Dollar and US Treasuries, which are both major reserve and safe-haven assets. When the Dollar depreciates, Gold tends to rise, enabling investors and central banks to diversify their assets in turbulent times. Gold is also inversely correlated with risk assets. A rally in the stock market tends to weaken Gold price, while sell-offs in riskier markets tend to favor the precious metal.
The price can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can quickly make Gold price escalate due to its safe-haven status. As a yield-less asset, Gold tends to rise with lower interest rates, while higher cost of money usually weighs down on the yellow metal. Still, most moves depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAU/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Gold controlled, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to push Gold prices up.
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