港股异动 | 移卡(09923)盘中跌超4% 到店竞争加剧、支付费率承压 公司利润或不及预期
移卡(09923)盘中跌超4%，截至发稿，跌3.7%，报13.02港元，成交额304.39万港元。
交银国际发布研报称，支付GPV增势不变。但考虑259号文件全面实施，收单合规化发展；支付业务一次性调整，预计短期费率下调或高于该行此前预期。长期看，行业合规化发展或加速中小机构出清，有助于行业集中度提升，利好头部机构。
交银国际预计，公司2023年下半年到店GMV为19亿元，同比持平/环比降20%，对应全年GMV为44亿元，低于2023年年初预期的>50亿元，主要因抖音服务商竞争进一步加剧。该行预计2023年全年到店收入1亿元，同比降69%，对应佣金率降7.6个百分点至2.5%，主要因：竞争加剧下直营模式佣金率下调；合伙人模式抽佣较低。
该行下调移卡评级至“中性”，考虑到店竞争加剧、支付费率短期承压，调低2024年收入/归母净利润预期。基于2024年15倍市盈率，目标价从21港元下调至16港元。公司上行风险为：行业加速出清，支付GPV增长/费率改善快于预期。下行风险：支付渠道拓展不及预期。
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