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麦格理:下调中国海洋石油(00883)评级至“跑输大市”目标价降至8.9港元

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麦格理发布报告称,将中国海洋石油(00883)评级由“中性”降至“跑输大市”,将今年资本支出预测上调至1200亿元人民币,同时将2023年至2025年每股盈测下调2%、10%及3%,目标价下调23%至8.9港元。

报告中称,公司早前上调今年资本支出预测至1200亿至1300亿元人民币,较早前指引高两成,也是近数年首次出现超支情况。该行表示,不相信此次事件属一次性,因公司自去年起经历CEO及CFO转变后,未来年度资本支出上升,尤其在全球离岸油田服务超级周期期间,公司正努力增加储备及生产。

该行表示,考虑现金流展望恶化、资本开支增加及该行下调国际油价预测后,以每年派息比率40%为假设,该行料至2026年中海油自由现金流将转负,撇除派息的自由现金流料至2025年将转负。

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