巴以对比俄乌:大类资产怎么走
一、主要股指
•上证指数在巴以冲突后至今-4%,去年俄乌冲突相同时间跨度后,-7%;
•恒生指数在巴以冲突后至今-2%,呈先涨后跌态势,去年单边下行,幅度-13%。
注:相同时间跨度指相同交易日间隔,具体日期以A股交易日为准,后文同。
•标普500此轮-2%,去年为上涨1%,均呈现短期的先涨后跌;
•纳指此轮-3%,去年为上涨2%,同样呈现先涨后跌。
•日经225此轮上涨1%,去年为-7%,均呈现短期的先涨后跌;
•英国富时100此轮-1%,先涨后跌;去年为-4%,先急跌后反弹;
•德国DAX此轮-3%,去年为-5%,相比于去年急跌后快速反弹,本轮下跌较缓。
二、大宗商品
•COMEX黄金此轮上涨8%,去年为上涨4%;本轮冲突后结束下跌开始反弹,而去年冲突后是上涨趋势的延续,但短期涨幅达8%后开始回落。
•LME铜此轮-1%,去年为上涨1%;
•LME铝此轮-3%,去年为0%;
•工业金属此轮呈现波动下跌趋势,去年冲突后短期急涨,后经历长期震荡下跌。
•ICE布油此轮上涨10%,冲突前后为急跌反弹,去年为上涨19%,冲突前后加速冲顶;
•NYMEX天然气此轮-12%,去年为-1%,但后续开启持续上涨模式。
三、债券
•中债10Y到期收益率此轮上涨3bps,去年上行5bps,冲突前后均维持上行趋势,去年最高上行6bps后震荡回落;
•美债10Y到期收益率此轮上涨15bps,去年-5bps,但后续开启持续上行模式。
四、汇率
•美元兑离岸人民币读数此轮上涨0.5%,去年走平,但后续开启持续上行模式,即人民币对美元持续贬值;
•美元指数此轮走平,去年为上涨1.8%,且后续半年多美元指数持续上行。
本文作者:姚佩(S0850518080004),来源:华创证券,原文标题:《【华创策略姚佩】巴以对比俄乌:大类资产怎么走》
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