EUR/USD: Bull’s determination to regain 1.2100 looks to Lagarde, US NFP

• EUR/USD pokes intraday high amid a quiet session.
• EU, US backs waiver of covid vaccine IP, Fed policymakers, except for Kaplan, reject rate hikes.
• Risk-on mood battles pre-NFP trading lull, German data, ECB President Lagarde’s speech eyed for intermediate moves.

EUR/USD picks up bids around 1.2068, up 0.03% intraday, while heading into Friday’s European session. In doing so, the currency major pair portrays a typical pre-NFP trading lull after rising the most in two weeks the previous day.

On Thursday, the US and the European Union (EU) agreed to back the waiver of the coronavirus (COVID-19) vaccine patent protections. The move triggered market optimism as it will speed up jabbing, especially important for the bloc which has been struggling to fasten the inoculations.

Also on the risk-positive side, negative for the US dollar, were comments from the US Federal Reserve (Fed) policymakers who rejected the reflection fears and idea of dialing back the easy money policies, except for Dallas Fed President Robert Kaplan. It should be noted that Kaplan’s non-voting-member status should have dimmed the importance of his push for tapering.

Elsewhere, the US extends curb on investments in Chinese firms, introduced by ex-President Donald Trump, while joining the bloc in criticizing Beijing’s trade/political roles. Also on the same lines are comments from the European Central Bank (ECB) top supervisor Andrea Enria who said, “40% of eurozone banks are not complying with the ECB's expectations on bad loans.”

Amid these plays, stock futures are mildly bid while the US 10-year Treasury yields wobble around 1.57% by the press time.

Although April’s US Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) become the key for the EUR/USD traders, Germany’s trade and industrial production details for March, as well as ECB President Christine Lagarde’s speech, could offer intermediate clues. While an expected pick-up in German numbers could help EUR/USD stay positive, ECB’s Lagarde need not highlight the risk for the region’s economy, mainly from Brexit and the coronavirus (COVID-19) to keep the markets hopeful.

Read: US April Nonfarm Payrolls Preview: Leading indicators point to another strong NFP

Technical analysis

Sustained trading beyond one-week-old falling trend line and 50-day EMA, respectively around 1.2010 and 1.1995, keeps EUR/USD bulls well-directed towards the 1.2100 threshold. However, the 1.2080 may act as an intermediate halt whereas the yearly top of 1.2149 may lure buyers afterward.