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Gold Price Analysis: Target achieved and fresh bear-cycle lows for 2021

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  • Gold has dropped to 2021 lows and in doing so has completed another chapter of 'Gold Price Analysis'.
  • The support structure on an hourly basis finally caved in, making way for the $1,765 weekly target. 

As per the prior analysis of Gold, Gold Price Analysis: Bears need break of current support for $1,765 target, stubborn bulls have finally given way to the weekly target and the price has printed a fresh cycle low for 2021. 

Prior analysis

Gold Price Analysis: Target achieved and fresh bear-cycle lows for 2021

The weekly outlook was illustrated in the above chart from the original analysis done on 9. Feb:

Gold Price Analysis: Bears to target a run to weekly support at $1,765

In more up to date analysis, Gold Price Analysis: Bears need break of current support for $1,765 target, from a 4-hour perspective tracking the progress of the price since the original article, the price had moved in the projected direction, running into support as follows:

Gold Price Analysis: Target achieved and fresh bear-cycle lows for 2021

Thereafter, the FOMC minutes arrived and helped prices along to the downside in bullish sentiment for the 2021 economic recovery:

Gold Price Analysis: XAU/USD vulnerable following bullish FOMC minutes

The hourly chart was then illustrating the bearish conditions for the conviction to the target as follows:

Gold Price Analysis: Target achieved and fresh bear-cycle lows for 2021

''Meanwhile, we have the last structure left to play out on the hourly chart where a 61.8% Fibonacci retracement of the latest hourly impulse has acted as a resistance. 

This offers a -272% Fibonacci retracement of the correction's range to the $1,765 target and the price is already well on the way there.''

Live markets, hourly chart

Gold Price Analysis: Target achieved and fresh bear-cycle lows for 2021

At this juncture, considering the weekly support, the price would now be expected to correct to the upside and restest the resistance of the $1,800 level again.

Daily chart

Gold Price Analysis: Target achieved and fresh bear-cycle lows for 2021

On the way there, $1,785 will be the first hurdle until the 38.2%, old support and psychological round number, $1,800, confluence. 

If the price continues to run deeper into demand, then the $1,785 resistance will potentially align with the 38.2% Fibo of the daily bearish impulse instead of $1,800.

In doing so, this will be firming $1,785 as a strong level of resistance and cementing the downside bias for lower lows and continuation of the bearish cycle 2021.

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