USD/INR Price News: Indian rupee stays offered ahead of US Retail Sales

• USD/INR remains bid amid broad US dollar strength, risk-on sentiment.
• India’s 20 trillion rupee stimulus fails to trigger optimism.
• Hopes of further aids from the US, more ‘no’ on negative Fed rates keep the US dollar on the bids.
• US Retail Sales, Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index will be in the spotlight, trade/virus updates also are the key.

USD/INR rises to 75.47, up 0.05% on a day, while heading into the European session on Friday. In doing so, the pair prints a three-day winning streak above 75.00. The reasons could be traced from the broad US dollar strength as well as Indian rupee weakness amid the coronavirus crisis. Traders are now looking towards the US April month consumer-centric data for fresh direction.

Indian government’s optimistic 20 trillion rupee stimulus to make the nation self-reliant fails to please the middle-income group. Also adding to the INR weakness could be the downbeat economics due to the virus-led lockdown that inches closer to a two-month halt in the macro activities. Additionally, downbeat Retail Sales from China, the Asian major also weigh on the Indian currency.

On the other hand, rising odds of another stimulus package by the US triggers risk-on sentiment during the early Asian session. However, fears of the US-China tussle keep the optimism in check.

That said, the US 10-year Treasury yields gain one basis point (bp) to 0.631% while Indian equity benchmarks are down more than 1.0% by the press time.

Looking forward, April month Retail Sales, Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index for May and certain other activity numbers from the US will be the key for the pair traders. While forecasts suggest downbeat prints of Retail Sales, Consumer Sentiment and Industrial Production, likely recovery in Empire State Manufacturing Index might play its role to guard the pair’s upside.

Read: US Retail Sales April Preview: As bad as can be but no surprise

Technical analysis

A short-term triangle formation between 76.00 and 75.05 seems to limit the pair’s immediate moves. Though, buyers remain in command unless the quote slips below early-March top near 74.60/55.