Oil higher as unrest plagues Libya and Iraq

Notes/Observations

- Unrest hits key OPEC producers Iraq and Libya

- US markets closed Monday for holiday

Asia:

- China PBoC leaves monthly rates unchanged fo r

- China Ministry of Industry and Information Technology (MIIT) Official Miao Wei stated that the country faced big pressure in stabilizing industrial production this year, confident to ensure stable industrial production in 2020

- China official said government is studying postponing the reduction of subsidies for new energy vehicles (NEVs)

Europe:

- (UK) Jan Rightmove House Prices data registered its best Jan readings (MoM: +2.3% v -0.9% prior; YoY: +2.7% v +0.8% prior

- Fitch affirmed Germany sovereign rating at AAA; outlook Stable

Brexit:

- Chancellor of the Exchequer Javid stated that there would no alignment with EU rules after Brexit; urged UK companies to forget about staying close to the EU after Brexit and to adjust to the 'new reality

Americas:

- President Trump legal team due to release 6 page document rejecting US House Of Representatives impeachment case against President; to argue President Trump acted at all times with full constitutional legal authority

Mid-East/Energy:

- Libya National Oil Corporation warned that eastern forces had seized several large export terminals, a move that would cut off oil exports for most of eastern and southern oil fields. The suspension left only two oil fields operational in the country, which produce enough power to cover just 25% of the Libyan population's needs

- Dozens injured in Iraq anti-government protests over the weekend; more rallies planned by organizers over the coming week specifically calling for removal of US troops from Iraq

SPEAKERS/FIXED INCOME/FX/COMMODITIES/ERRATUM

Equities

Indices [Stoxx600 -0.20% at 423.52, FTSE -0.23% at 7,656.91, DAX -0.05% at 13,519.08, CAC-40 -0.29% at 6,083.31, IBEX-35 -0.43% at 9,640.00, FTSE MIB -0.66% at 23,982.79, SMI +0.14% at 10,857.00, S&P 500 Futures -0.16%]

Market Focal Points/Key Themes: European indices mostly in the red following Asia indices mostly up and slightly lower US futures. Fevertree dives on profit warning, reporting final FY19 sales below preliminary guidance range and forecasting FY20 earnings to decline 5% y/y. Other fallers on trading updates include Renewi, Henry Boot, Anglo Pacific and Interroll. Akva down on profit warning. Outokumpu rallying following Q4 EBITDA guidance upgrade. UK homebuilders Persimmon, Barratt Development, Taylor Wimpey and Berkeley trading higher as Rightmove reported meaningful January house price increases in the UK m/m and y/y. Intu Properties dives on confirmation of equity raise targeted for end of February. REC Silicon tanks as China will extend tariffs on imports of solar-grade polysilicon from the US and South Korea for a further 5 years and the company confirmed no decision has been reached regarding restarting the company's Moses Lake facility. Lamprell jumps on large contract award. On the M&A front, Sirius Minerals up reaching agreement with Anglo American to be acquired for £5.50/shr. Qiagen up on renewed takeover speculation and BAE Systems up on two acquisitions.

Equities

- Consumer discretionary: Prosieben SAT.1 Media [PSM.DE] +2% (analyst upgrade)

- Consumer staples: Fevertree [FEVR.UK] -21% (earnings)

- Energy: Lamprell [LAM.UK] +9% (contract awards)

- Financials: DIC Asset [DIC.DE] +3.5% (earnings)

- Healthcare: Qiagen [QIA.DE] +3.5% (takeover speculations)

- Industrials: BAE Systems [BA.UK] +3% (acquisitions)

- Materials: Sirius Minerals [SXX.UK] +2% (to be acquired by Anglo American)

Speakers

- EU's Trade Chief Hogan: China market distortions were serious challenge and needed to make concrete progress on opening up its markets

- Poland Central Bank's Kropiwnicki: Negative real interest rates do not encourage rate cut and added that rate hikes were not the best policy in a slowing economy

- South Korea President Moon: Monthly exports are likely to rise; rise in stock markets reflects expectations for economy

- Hong Kong Govt stated that its labor market to be subject to more pressure in the near term. Consumption and tourism-related sectors remained in the doldrums with sector unemployment at 5.2% (3-year high)

- Iran said to be working on the last steps to reduce its commitment to nuclear accord. Stated that EU resorting to dispute mechanism lacked a legal value

- Iran Foreign Min Zarif: If Tehran nuclear issue was referred to UN, then country would pull out of the non-proliferation treaty (NPT)

Currencies/Fixed Income

- USD held onto its recent gains in a very quest EU session on Monday.

- GBP/USD kept a soft tone ahead of the BOE rate decision on Jan 30th. Currently the market was pricing in a 70% probability of a rate cut at the end of this month after a recent spat of weak UK data. The upcoming PMI data on Friday could make or break any near-term move by the BOE.

- EUR/USD held below the 1.11 level. ECB meets on Thursday and focus will turn to Lagarde ‘s plan start of her strategy review. Some speculation has surface whether and how the central bank could switch to a symmetric inflation target.

Economic Data

- (NO) Norway Q4 Industrial Confidence: 0.7 v 2.3 prior

- (DE) Germany Dec PPI M/M: 0.1% v 0.1%e; Y/Y: -0.2% v -0.3%e

- (ES) Spain Nov House transactions Y/Y: -9.3% v -1.5% prior

- (TW) Taiwan Dec Export Orders Y/Y: 0.9% v 0.4%e

- (HK) Hong Kong Dec Unemployment Rate: 3.3% v 3.3%e

- (CH) Swiss Weekly Total Sight Deposits (CHF): 585.9B v 584.5B prior; Domestic Sight Deposits: 508.6B v 504.3B prior

**Fixed Income Issuance**

- (SK) Slovakia Debt Agency (Ardal) sold total €296M in 2030 and 2031 bonds

- (DE) Germany sold €1.235B vs. €1.5B indicated in 6-Month BuBills; Avg Yield: -0.5724% v -0.587% prior; Bid-to-cover: 2.3x v 1.6x prior

Looking Ahead

- (IL) Israel Jan 12-month CPI Forecast: No est v 1.1% prior

- 06:00 (RO) Romania to sell RON600M in 4.85% 2026 Bonds

- 06:00 (IL) Israel to sell 2022, 2023, 2026, 2029 and 2030 bonds

- 06:45 (US) Daily Libor Fixing

- 07:00 (IN) India announces details of upcoming bond sale (held on Fridays)

- 08:00 IMF updates it World Economic Outlook (WEO)

- 08:00 (UK) Daily Baltic Dry Bulk Index

- 08:00 (ES) Spain Debt Agency (Tesoro) size announcement on issuance

- 08:30 (CA) Canada Dec Teranet/National Bank House Price Index (HPI) M/M: No est v 0.2% prior; Y/Y: No est v 1.4% prior; House Price Index (HPI): No est v 227.96 prior

-08:50 (FR) France Debt Agency (AFT) to sell €2.8-4.0B in 3-month, 6-month and 12-month bills

- 09:45 (EU) ECB weekly QE bond buying update

- 16:00 (KR) South Korea Dec PPI Y/Y: No est v -0.1% prior

- 16:30 (NZ) New Zealand Dec Performance Services Index: No est v 53.3 prior

- 17:30 (AU) Australia ANZ Roy Morgan Weekly Consumer Confidence Index: No est v 107.3 prior

- 22:00 (TH) Thailand Central Bank to sell combined THB75B in 3-month and 6-month bills

- (JP) Bank of Japan (BOJ) Interest Rate and Policy Decision: Expected to leave Interest Rate on Excess Reserves (IOER) unchanged at -0.10%; maintain its policy framework of "QQE with Yield Control" around 0.00% and maintain asset purchases at annual pace of ¥80T

- (JP) BOJ Quarterly Outlook for Economic Activity and Prices