Weekly Economic Calendar: Week of 18 - 22 May, 2026 (GMT+8)
| Key highlights: |
🇬🇧 19 May, 14:00 - Average Earnings Index + Bonus (Mar)
🇬🇧 20 May, 14:00 - CPI (YoY) (Apr)
🇬🇧 20 May, 14:00 - CPI (MoM) (Apr)
🇪🇺 20 May, 17:00 - CPI (YoY) (Apr)
🇺🇸 20 May, 22:30 - Crude Oil Inventories
🇺🇸 21 May, 02:00 - FOMC Meeting Minutes
🇬🇧 21 May, 16:30 - Services PMI (May)
🇬🇧 21 May, 16:30 - Manufacturing PMI (May)
🇬🇧 21 May, 16:30 - Composite PMI (May)
🇺🇸 21 May, 20:30 - Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index (May)
🇺🇸 21 May, 20:30 - Initial Jobless Claims
🇺🇸 21 May, 21:45 - Manufacturing PMI (May)
🇬🇧 22 May, 14:00 - Core Retail Sales (YoY) (Apr)
🇬🇧 22 May, 14:00 - Core Retail Sales (MoM) (Apr)
🇬🇧 22 May, 14:00 - Retail Sales (MoM) (Apr)
🇬🇧 UK Average Earnings and GBP Rate Expectations
UK Average Earnings Index + Bonus will be watched closely, with the previous reading at 3.80%. Wage growth is important because it can influence inflation pressure and Bank of England policy expectations. If wage growth remains firm, GBP may receive support as markets could expect the BoE to stay cautious on rate cuts. Softer wage data may pressure GBP by suggesting easing inflation pressure from the labour market.
The key UK event of the week is the CPI release on Wednesday. UK CPI YoY previously stood at 3.30%, while CPI MoM previously stood at 0.70%. If inflation remains sticky or comes in above expectations, GBP may strengthen as traders reduce expectations for faster BoE easing. If CPI cools more than expected, GBP may weaken as the market may price in a more dovish BoE path.
🇪🇺 Eurozone CPI and EUR Sensitivity
Eurozone CPI YoY is forecast at 3.00%, higher than the previous 2.60%. This will be important for EUR traders because stronger inflation could reduce expectations for aggressive ECB rate cuts. A higher-than-expected reading may support EUR, while softer inflation may pressure EUR by strengthening the case for a more accommodative ECB stance.
🇺🇸 Crude Oil Inventories and Inflation Sentiment
Crude Oil Inventories will also be closely watched, with the previous reading showing a draw of -4.306M. A larger-than-expected inventory draw may support oil prices and revive inflation concerns, especially if energy markets remain tight. This could indirectly support USD through higher inflation expectations. On the other hand, a surprise inventory build may weigh on oil prices and reduce near-term inflation pressure.
🇬🇧 UK PMI Data and Growth Momentum
Thursday’s UK PMI block includes Services PMI, Manufacturing PMI and Composite PMI. Previous readings were 52.7 for Services PMI, 53.7 for Manufacturing PMI and 52.6 for Composite PMI. Since all three previous readings were above the 50 expansion line, traders will watch whether the UK economy can maintain positive business activity momentum. Strong PMI readings may support GBP, while weaker readings may create downside pressure.
🇺🇸 U.S. Manufacturing and Jobless Claims
Thursday’s U.S. session brings the Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index, Initial Jobless Claims and Manufacturing PMI. The Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index previously stood at 26.7, Initial Jobless Claims previously stood at 211K, and Manufacturing PMI previously stood at 54.5. Strong manufacturing data and low jobless claims may support the USD by showing economic resilience. Weaker manufacturing data or rising jobless claims may pressure the Dollar by suggesting slower growth and early labour-market softness.
🇬🇧 UK Retail Sales and Consumer Demand
Friday’s UK Retail Sales data will be important for GBP sentiment. Core Retail Sales YoY previously stood at 1.70%, Core Retail Sales MoM previously stood at 0.20%, and Retail Sales MoM previously stood at 0.70%. Strong retail sales may support GBP by showing resilient consumer demand, while weak retail sales may pressure GBP by suggesting that households are becoming more cautious.
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