综合前篇文章的宏观经济分析，美国通胀维持温和增速(指市场预测的12月核心PCE物价指数)，配合经济稳定增长(亚特兰大联储的GDPNow模型预估美国第四季GDP为2.2℅)的情况未变，这是有利多头回温的因素，但美国国债收益率曲线倒挂幅度收殓，市场流动性收缩，金融环境恐重回紧缩状态，甚至开始引导经济走向超预期放缓风险。从技术面来看，美股上周站上1月5日的短线压力16576，初步有转强迹象，但若无法重新收复17050关键转折压力，美股在金融环境转为负向背景下仍存在重新下行概率，除非美债收益率曲线倒挂重新扩大，或后续即将公布的第四季企业财报好于市场预期，美股或能突破关键压力重拾多头波段涨势。
#SPX500#、#US30#、#GER30#、#EUR/USD#、#AUD/USD#、#GBP/USD#、#HSI# 、#AUD/USD# #USD/CAD#
Edited 18 Jan 2024, 21:43
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