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2022.1.21债券定价和商品价格发生背离,市场在定价什么?

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近期债券定价和商品价格发生了比较严重的背离,原油和通胀预期的背离,黄金和实际利率的背离,一定程度上表明了现阶段市场出现了比较大的分歧,那么市场到底在交易什么?谁是对的?



还是这张图:


2022.1.21债券定价和商品价格发生背离,市场在定价什么?



从图中可以看出几个变量开始出现不同程度的发展

实际利率图形上沿,图形上看突破的动能并不是特别足

通胀预期开始和名义利率同步,且跌破上升下沿

波动率小幅度企稳


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