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Gold prices traded lower during the trading session Thursday (2/12), trying to test the lowest since early November as pressured by the strengthening of the dollar amid speculation the Fed's interest rate hike.

The probability of a Fed rate hike has continued to increase since the Fed Head's testimony at the beginning of last week. The probability of a Fed rate hike for the March 2022 meeting increased to 31.9% from 15.7% in the November survey.

The survey increased to 50.7% for the May 2022 meeting, up from 28.5% based on the November survey and Increases to 75.4% for the June 2022 meeting from 58.5% based on the November survey.

In the spot market, gold prices closed lower as much as $13.70 or 0.77% to end at $1,767.97 per ounce, after having tested a high of $1,783 and a low of $1,761. The February gold futures contract, the most active contract at the moment, closed down as much as $21.60, or 1.23%, ending at $1,762.70 an ounce on the Comex Division.

Entering the trading session later this week, the gold market will focus on the US Nonfarm Payrolls and Unemployment Rate report at 20:30 WIB. The improving US employment data will again increase the prospect of a Fed rate hike and push the dollar higher and vice versa.

Source: Mahadana Asta Futures

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