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GBP/USD Weekly Outlook

GBP/USD edged higher to 1.3702 last week but retreated against quickly. Initial bias stays neutral this week for consolidations first. Further rise is expected as long as 1.3428 support holds. Break of 1.3702 will resume whole rise from 1.1409 to 61.8% projection of 1.1409 to 1.3482 from 1.2675 at 1

USD/CAD Weekly Outlook

USD/CAD edged lower to 1.2629 last week as down trend resumed. But it quickly lost momentum and recovered. Initial bias is neutral this week for some consolidations first. Outlook will stays bearish as long as 1.2797 resistance holds. On the downside, break of 1.2629 will resume the larger down tren

EUR/GBP Weekly Outlook

EUR/GBP stayed in sideway consolidation last week and outlook is unchanged. Initial bias remains neutral this week first. With 0.8861 support intact, choppy rise from 0.8670 is in favor to extend. On the upside, decisive break of 0.9291 will target 0.9449 high. On the downside, however, break of 0.8

EUR/AUD Weekly Outlook

EUR/AUD’s down trend continued last week and there is no sign of bottoming yet. Initial bias remains on the downside this week. Firm break of 100% projection of 1.6827 to 1.6122 from 1.6420 at 1.5715 will target 161.8% projection at 1.5279 next. On the upside, break of 1.5863 minor resistance will s

EUR/CHF Weekly Outlook

EUR/CHF recovered last week but stayed below 1.0890 resistance. Initial bias is neutral this week first and some more consolidative trading could be seen. On the upside, break of 1.8920 resistance will target 1.0915. On the downside, below 1.0787 will target 1.0737 support first. Break there will ex

Dollar Relatively Resilient in Strong Risk-on Market, Setting the Base for a Rebound?

Global investors were all in risk seeking mode in the first full week of 2021. That came despite all the headlines of surges in coronavirus infection and death, return to strict lockdowns, chaos in Washington and Joe Biden’s certification as US President-Elect. Dollar didn’t perform too well but the

Weekly Economic and Financial Commentary: Slow Start to 2021

U.S. Review Slow Start to 2021 The manufacturing sector is showing a great deal of resilience, with the ISM Manufacturing survey exceeding expectations, at 60.7, and factory orders remaining strong. The service sector is also showing a great deal of strength, although activity has clearly slowed in

Forward Guidance: Virus Resurgence Will Temper Optimism Among Canadian Businesses

We look for the Bank of Canada’s quarterly Business Outlook Survey (BOS) to reiterate that the near-term economic background remains challenging albeit more for some businesses than others. The survey was likely collected from mid-November to mid-December as virus containment measures were being re-

The Weekly Bottom Line: A Turbulent Start To A Hopeful Year

U.S. Highlights Unprecedented events rocked the U.S. Capitol this week. Ultimately, Congress certified Joe Biden as the next President and President Trump agreed to a peaceful transition of power. The Democrats took control of the Senate by prevailing in both Georgia runoff elections. With all three

US NFP Not So Bad; Canadian Employment Change Even Better: USD/CAD

The US Non-Farm Payrolls reports showed that the US economy lost 140,000 jobs during the month of December vs an expectation of +71,000. However, the revision to the November print was +336,000, and increase of 91,000. Because of the revision, the NET NFP number for December was -49,000. Therefore,

Week Ahead – An Extraordinary Start to the Year

Attention slowly shifting from US politics What an extraordinary start to the year. While next week should be much quieter, it won’t be without action. US politics is unlikely to go quiet with talk continuing of possible impeachment proceedings against President Trump, Covid is wreaking havoc once a

Week Ahead: Coronavirus Daily Cases and Bond Yields Both Moving Higher!

Headlines galore! The UK is back in lockdown as the coronavirus has overtaken the country and the word “variant” is now in everyone’s vocabulary. Democrats in the US now control the Senate with their victories in Georgia. President Trump attended a support rally on Wednesday, which ended with an ass

Canada Employment Dipped in December

Employment fell by 63k in December, the first drop since the 3 million plunge in March/April of last year Downturn led by the hospitality sector, other industries posted gains on balance The unemployment rate ticked up to 8.6% from 8.5% The 63k drop in employment in December was the first decline si

Weekly Focus – Democratic Clean Sweep

With victory in the two special Senate runoffs the US Democratic Party has achieved a clean sweep and will control the presidency and both chambers of Congress. While it is a narrow victory, as Vice President-elect Kamala Harris will cast tiebreaking votes in the 50-50 Senate and the Democratic Part

Week Ahead – The Calm Before the Stimulus Storm?

It looks like a quiet week for global markets, with no major central bank meetings and only a handful of key data releases. The highlight may be the US CPI data, which will tell us how inflationary pressures are evolving, but even that could pass unnoticed. Instead, the main driver for markets may b

Pull-up Update