JPY: Intervention watch USD/JPY is now trading above 155 – the level that most had expected to trigger Japanese FX intervention. While we do believe that last week's trilateral meeting of US, Japanese and Korean finance ministers was an important one for the intervention story, the joint press release was necessary but not sufficient for intervention. The sufficiency has to come from market conditions and one can argue we are not there yet.  For example, when the Bank of Japan first came in to the market to sell $20bn on a single day in September 2022, one-month USD/JPY implied volatility had been trading in a 12-15% range. And USD/JPY had seen a 20-day rate of change in the 5-8% area. Currently, one-month traded volatility is still sub 10% and the 20-day rate of change is far more modest at closer to 3%. It will therefore be tough for the Japanese to argue they are responding to disorderly FX moves. Were the US data to point to a 0.4% MoM March core PCE release tomorrow, USD/JPY could spike into the 156/157 and bring us closer to BoJ intervention. But those who argue intervention will not come until closer to 160 do have a point.