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基本面上,本周美联储主席鲍威尔言论最近的数据显示今年通胀进展不足,对通胀信心的恢复可能需要更长时间。同时,杰斐逊也表示如有必要,政策将在更长时间内保持限制性。令市场降低了对美联储今年降息超过一次的预期,但金价就此未出现持续性且稳定的回落行情,各参与者已对此产生消化,以及仍认定美联储最终将降息,而对于前景上,继续看好金价,使其高位持稳。      综合来看,市场看涨买盘需求依然很高,就算强劲的美国经济增长和顽固的通货膨胀相结合,增加了美联储加息而不是降息的可能性;促使美联储重新加息,而提振美元持续走强,打压金价,但我们可以看到,市场对于美元已经不信任,就算走强,对于金价的吸引力降低也是有限,就此也会引发债市和股市的深度抛售,以及对于通胀的担忧,也将提振金价走强。   另外,不可忽视的是,2022年美联储暴力加息也没有把金价打下来,而是处于高位宽幅震荡。现在就更不可能打下来,所以,也不能指望降息预期降低,或是加息预期增强,而令金价走低。

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