欧元：制造业忧虑加深
欧元区制造业采购经理人指数继续显示该地区制造业前景黯淡。在德国，制造业采购经理人指数继续走低，尽管人们预期会出现反弹。现在看来，今年年初的温和乐观情绪显然可能是错误的。无论如何，这与外汇市场关系不大。欧元区疲软的经济前景早已被计入价格，而且市场对欧洲央行 6 月降息（23 个基点已被计入价格）也相对有信心，因此欧元/美元的走势主要取决于美元利率预期。
如果美元汇率不下降，欧元/美元持续回升的可能性仍然不大，但我们在上文讨论过，考虑到美联储最近的言论，昨天美元对美国数据的积极反应似乎过头了，我们认为欧元/美元在触底前不应再下跌太多。
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