最近几周，日元面临多重困境：
1、日本经济现陷入技术性衰退，迫使投资者推迟日本央行开始加息的时间。
2、日本央行淡化了近期加息的可能性，这也令日元承压。
3、投资者缩减了美联储2024年降息的幅度。
4、日经指数大幅反弹，而日股与日元明显负相关。
5、最后，或许也是最重要的，投资者对套息交易的追捧，因为美国经济不会着陆的说法主导了市场。
4小时级别上，美日继续盘整，盘中偏向保持中性。若进一步回调，美日下行应受制于148.79支撑。上行方面，突破150.87将恢复看向151.89-151.93关键阻力区的动能。果断突破前高的话，将确认美日更大级别的上行趋势目标155.5。
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