【火鸡思维】
假设你是一只火鸡，被农夫养在美国的农场。在过去的120天里，你都很幸福，因为农夫每天都给你吃的。所以，随着时间的推移，你的幸福指数直线上升，是线性发展的。绝大多数人都会像这只火鸡一样，站在过去看现在，站在现在预测未来。作为一只火鸡，你认为这种幸福会永远的持续下去。但很不幸，明天就是感恩节了，大家知道会发生什么事。火鸡的幸福指数戛然而止，因为火鸡不知道要过感恩节，感恩节人们要烤火鸡吃。
PS：归纳法总有局限性和风险，而从个别性推出一般性结论也存在不可靠性。最早源自英国哲学家、数学家、思想家伯特兰·罗素
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