国盛证券张峻晓：美联储本轮紧缩周期已临近尾声
11月21日，国盛证券策略团队负责人张峻晓表示，美联储7月加息过后，政策利率水平已达过去22年以来最高点，随后美联储在9月与11月连续两次暂停加息，实质上反映美联储开始面临抗通胀与维护金融稳定双重困境，这往往出现在紧缩周期的尾部。下半年以来，美国劳动力市场过热程度降低，通胀趋势得到较好抑制，抗通胀压力得到大幅缓解，激进加息的紧迫性下降。而且，继续加息可能会威胁到美国商业地产和中小银行体系，给未来经济增长带来压力。从最新FOMC会议发布点阵图看，美联储19名官员中，有12人认为四季度还需再加息一次，另外7人倾向不再加息，这表明本轮紧缩周期已经临近尾声。
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