FPG ：The U.S. dollar and Treasury bonds strengthened, while gold recorded its sixth consecutive day of losses, hitting a seven-month low. 1. [Powell’s speech] Federal Reserve Chairman Powell emphasized the bank's focus on achieving a sustainable labor market during a round table event on Monday. He highlighted ongoing challenges related to the pandemic, including labor shortages in healthcare and childcare services. Powell also discussed efforts to bring more people into the workforce, emphasizing that a stable labor market can lead to positive outcomes, including real wage growth. Comments: While extended economic expansion benefits lower-wage workers, history has shown that a stable price environment is crucial for this to happen. 2. [U.S. September ISM Manufacturing PMI] In September, the U.S. ISM Manufacturing PMI reached 49, surpassing expectations of 47.7 and the previous reading of 47.6. This marks the highest level since November of the previous year. Additionally, the final reading for Markit Manufacturing PMI in the U.S. for September was 49.8, exceeding market expectations. Comments: September's ISM manufacturing PMI data reflects strong growth in production and factory employment, the most significant since July 2022. While the new order index is still contracting, it has improved to its highest level in over a year. 3. [Removal of Speaker McCarthy of the U.S. House of Representatives] Infighting within the U.S. Republican Party has intensified, with some Republican House members seeking the removal of Speaker McCarthy. This comes after a last-minute passage of a temporary appropriations bill by Congress to avoid a government shutdown, further dividing the party. Comments: The effort to remove Speaker McCarthy may succeed, but Democrats could also influence the outcome by voting against the motion or choosing not to vote at all. 4. [U.S. bond yields rise to multi-year highs] The bond market marked the beginning of the last quarter of the year with another round of selling. On Monday, yields on 10-year and 30-year U.S. bonds reached multi-year highs. The yield on the benchmark 10-year Treasury bond touched 4.7%, the highest level since 2007, while the 30-year yield rose above 4.81%, a peak unseen since 2010. Yields on 5-year to 30-year U.S. bonds increased by over 10 basis points during the day. Comments: The U.S. Congress passed a temporary appropriations bill, ensuring government operations until November 17. This has prompted the market to adjust its expectations for the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates this year and reduce bets on rate cuts next year. 5. [OPEC] OPEC's oil production in September increased by 120,000 barrels per day compared to August, reaching 27.73 million barrels per day for the second consecutive month. This increase was primarily driven by rising production in Nigeria and Iran. Comments: Increased crude oil supply and the high-interest rate environment are exerting downward pressure on oil prices. Without significant new developments, oil prices may continue to decline. 6. [Ukrainian aid funds are running low] The U.S. Department of Defense has warned Congress that Ukraine's aid funds are running low. U.S. President Biden plans to engage with allies to ensure continued support for Ukraine. It's reported that this call may take place as early as Tuesday. Comments: Ukraine has been forced to slow down the supply of its troops due to uncertainties about future funding sources. If funds cannot be replenished in a timely manner, it could upset the balance between Russia and Ukraine. Kina, a special analyst at FPG, points out: The market's growing expectation of continued interest rate hikes by the Federal Reserve has strengthened the U.S. dollar. Soaring Treasury bond yields have suddenly made fixed-income investments more attractive, further dampening the short-term outlook for gold prices. Gold futures for December delivery on the New York Mercantile Exchange saw the price drop by $18.90, or 1%, closing at $1,472.20 per ounce, marking the lowest closing price since March 9. Dawson, another special analyst at FPG, offers insights: Recent data reveals that the unemployment rate in the eurozone has remained at an all-time low for the past few months, holding steady at 6.4% in August. Despite weak economic growth, the job market in the eurozone may experience some relaxation but is unlikely to see a significant slowdown. Weak industrial demand could potentially lead to a rise in the unemployment rate in the coming months. However, due to ongoing labor shortages, a major turnaround in the eurozone labor market is unlikely. Dave, another special analyst at FPG, provides his perspective: International oil prices experienced a decline on Monday. By the day's close, the price of light crude oil futures for November delivery on the New York Mercantile Exchange dropped by $1.97, closing at $88.82 per barrel, a decrease of 2.17%. The price of London Brent crude oil futures for December delivery also fell by $1.49, closing at $90.71 per barrel, a decline of 1.62%. Currently, investors remain concerned about the potential increase in crude oil supply and the pressure on crude oil demand due to the high-interest rate environment. Yue Lin, a special analyst at FPG, comments: Amid rising U.S. Treasury yields and a strengthening U.S. dollar, coupled with concerns that interest rates may continue to rise for an extended period, the three major stock indexes experienced fluctuations on Monday. By the close of the day, the Dow declined by 74.15 points, representing a 0.22% decrease, closing at 33,433.35 points. On the other hand, the Nasdaq index increased by 88.45 points, marking a 0.67% gain and closing at 13,307.77 points. The S&P 500 index barely moved, gaining just 0.34 points or 0.01%, closing at 4,288.39 points. A short-term spending agreement averted a partial government shutdown in the United States. However, this news failed to excite investors, as it only provided funding for less than two months. The above analysis is only for the views of market researchers and is for reference only and is not Regarded as a specific investment suggestion. #Forex #trading #tradingforex