FPG ：The market expects that the minutes of the Federal Reserve meeting this week will be absolutely hawkish, and gold may break 1900? 1. [Japan caught up with China as the second largest trade deficit] According to the information of the Trade Association, from 1983 to 2010 From 2015 to 2021, Japan was the largest trade deficit country in South Korea. With the blowout growth of the trade deficit with China in January this year, China overtaught Japan to become a trade country of South Korea’s National University. In June and July, the trade deficit with China converged, and with the increase in the amount of chips imported from Japan, the trade deficit with Japan exceeded the trade deficit with China. Comments: Under the current difficult situation of the three pillars of South Korea’s economy, car manufacturing, shipbuilding and chip manufacturing, the whole economic structure is waiting for revolution. 2. [U.S. Food Production Reduction] The U.S. Department of Agriculture, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration and the National Drought Control Center jointly released the U.S. Qian Zao Monitoring Map. As the main grain-producing area, the early situation of Dafan in the Midwest of the United States has triggered a wide range of Concerned, experts said that the production of food crops such as jade* and soybeans may be significantly reduced. Comments: The recent floods have led to upward pressure on the price of agricultural products, and then the price of pork has risen. Since August, the domestic pig price (external three yuan) has risen continuously, exceeding 17 yuan/kg, with a month-on-month increase of 22.62%, setting a new high in the year. Although the CPI is at a low level, the rise in the price of agricultural products is not driven by demand. 3. [Iran’s daily oil exports exceed 1.4 million barrels, exceeding the budget plan level] Iran’s daily oil exports exceed 140 Ten thousand barrels, beyond the budget plan level. Comments: The United States is facing another rise in oil prices, which eases the pressure on Iran. 4 [US Energy Information Administration EIA] The International Energy Agency said in its monthly report last Friday (August 11) that the production cuts in Saudi Arabia and Russia are expected to reduce oil inventories for the rest of this year, which may push up oil prices, and then the economic headwind will limit the growth of global demand in 2024. . According to the forecast of the U.S. Energy Information Administration (E1A) in August, U.S. crude oil production is expected to increase from 11.9 million barrels per day in 2022 to 12.8 million barrels per day in 2023, and to 13.1 million barrels per day in 2024. Comments: Due to the slow recovery of the global economy and the strengthening of the US dollar, oil prices may be depressed, but OPEC+ has said that it will take all measures to tighten supply and stabilize the market, and now shorts are still waiting to fight back. 5. [Russian Ministry of Defense] Xinhua News Agency, Moscow, August 14 (Reporter Zhao Bing) The Russian Ministry of Defense announced on the 14th that Russian warplanes successfully prevented Norwegian vehicles from violating the Russian border in the Barents Sea on the same day. According to the news, Russia detected a target near the Russian border in the sea of Barenzhi that day, a MiG of the Air Force of the Russian Northern Fleet. The -29 fighter immediately was identified and confirmed to be the target P-8A reconnaissance aircraft of the Norwegian Air Force. The reconnaissance plane turned around and flew away after discovering that the Russian fighter was approaching. Comments: Norway has always been the outpost of the United States for the Arctic. Among them, the Svalbard Islands are located on the northern coast of Norway and the North Pole. Russia and Nawe also have differences. The military confrontation between Russia and the United States-headed NATO in the Barenzy Sea will further intensify. 6. [World Gold Association Global Central Bank Resumes Net Purchase of Gold in June] According to the latest data released by the International Monetary Fund MF, by the end of June 2023, the world’s official gold reserves totaled 35730.7 tons. In June, the global central bank’s net purchase of gold reached 55 tons, which is the first time that the world’s central bank has achieved a large-scale purchase of gold since February this year. Inherit After three consecutive months of net sales, the global central bank achieved net purchase again in June. Comments, in the whole macro environment, inflation in the United States is declining rapidly, the Fed’s QT superimposed interest level is at a high level, and the general environment is not conducive to gold. FPG special analyst King’s opinion: Driven by the high yields of the U.S. dollar and U.S. Treasury bonds, gold fell to nearly $1,900 per ounce. The market is waiting for the U.S. retail sales data released on Tuesday and the minutes of the July meeting of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) released on Wednesday. At present, the market generally expects that the minutes of the Federal Reserve meeting this week will be absolutely hawkish, so the gold price may continue to be under pressure and is likely to break through $1,900. FPG special analyst Dawson Daosheng’s point of view: At present, the market is affected by the tightening of supply previously announced by the reduction of production by Saudi Arabia and Russia, and continues to remain at 80. The above high position. However, concerns about the weak economic recovery and the strengthening of the US dollar in major Asian countries have put pressure on oil prices. In addition, the number of active oil rigs in the United States stabilized at 525 last week, ending eight consecutive weeks of decline. Concerns about the global economic recovery and the strengthening of the US dollar have put potential pressure on oil prices. Dave, a special analyst at FPG: The yield of U.S. 10-year treasury bonds, known as the “anchor of global asset pricing”, once hit 4.18%, just one step away from the year’s high of 4.20% earlier this month, pushing the U.S. dollar index back to a high of 103, suppressing a large number of Asian goods, including the Japanese yen. The exchange rate of currency and yen hit a new low of 145 this year. HSBC expects the Japanese government to push up the yen exchange rate in the 145-148 area. Due to the obvious weakness of the yen last year, the Japanese authorities intervened in the foreign exchange market three times. In September, it was in the case that the yen fell below the 145 mark and was on the verge of the 146 mark that the authorities intervened in the foreign exchange market. This time, market participants are also paying close attention to whether the Bank of Japan will “redo it again”. Daisuke Uno, chief strategist of Sumitomo Mitsui Bank, said, “The market’s expectation of intervention may increase, but officials may only intervene verbally, which is unlikely to occur in the short term. Real intervention. FPG special analyst Yue Lin’s point of view: Against the backdrop of rising yields of U.S. treasury bonds, U.S. stocks are under great pressure to rebound. In the next few days, the U.S. stock market will also usher in more highlights. Kashmiri, chairman of the Minneapolis Federal Reserve, will make a speech on Tuesday, and the minutes of the Federal Reserve’s monetary policy meeting in July will also be released. Although the frequency of appearances of Federal Reserve officials has been greatly reduced during this period, as the Federal Reserve’s Jackson Hole annual meeting approaches, it is bound to trigger more discussions related to monetary policy. The above analysis is only for the views of market researchers and is for reference only and is not Regarded as a specific investment suggestion. #Forex #trading #tradingforex