FPG ：The highly anticipated US non-farm payrolls data is about to be released, and the market is on high alert. 1. [Trump Faces Legal Challenges, Potentially Yielding to Biden] As the date for the Republican presidential candidate's announcement approaches, the US Department of Justice has intensified its "political persecution" of Donald Trump. Trump has pleaded not guilty to four charges related to his attempts to overturn the 2020 presidential election, including conspiracy to defraud the United States. The former president and 2024 Republican presidential candidate underwent a deposition in a federal court in Washington, D.C. This is the third time he has been deposed in four months, and he has also entered pleas of not guilty in courts in Miami and New York. Comment: With legal challenges looming at this time, it will seriously affect Trump's ability to campaign. Trump may have to hand over the presidency to Biden. If Trump can win under such circumstances, it would indicate that the American public has completely lost confidence in the US system. The risk of internal divisions in the United States is unprecedented. 2. [Saudi Arabia Extends Voluntary Oil Production Cut Agreement to End of September, with Possible Further Extensions or Deepening Measures After September] The voluntary oil production cut of 1 million barrels per day implemented from July will be extended for another month until the end of September. Measures for production cuts after September may be "extended or deepened." To ensure market balance, Russia will continue to voluntarily reduce oil supplies in September, reducing oil exports by 300,000 barrels per day. Comment: The atmosphere for oil price gains is strong, and the successful reduction in production in the previous period has helped boost oil prices. OPEC+ does not need to cut production further; instead, they should take advantage of the situation. 3. [Russian Finance Ministry] The Russian Finance Ministry stated that oil and gas revenues in July were 32.7 billion rubles lower than expected. It is expected that oil and gas revenues in August will increase by 73.2 billion rubles. According to budget plans, Russia will shift from buying gold from the market to selling gold. Comment: India has previously expressed concerns about Russia selling rubles, and currently, Russia faces significant income pressures. 4. [US Factory Orders Increase 2.3% Month-on-Month in June, Largest Gain Since January 2021] US factory orders in June recorded a 2.3% increase, the largest gain since January 2021. In addition, the ISM Services Employment Index showed fewer hires for the month. Business activity and new order growth slowed down, but these indicators continue to show strong consumer demand for the services sector. Comment: Despite the strong factory orders in June, there are signs of slower growth in business activity and new orders. However, consumer demand for the services sector remains robust. 5. [Bank of England Raises Interest Rates by 25 Basis Points to 5.25%] The Bank of England raised its key interest rate by 25 basis points to 5.25% on Thursday, in line with market expectations. This comes after the bank surprised the market with a 50-basis-point increase in June. However, signs of internal dissent among policymakers have led traders to scale back their bets on further rate hikes in the future, and market pricing indicates that rates are expected to peak below 5.75% by December. Comment: The Bank of England's stance is to "maintain sufficient restraint for a sufficient period" to bring inflation back to the 2% target. The bank lowered its economic growth forecasts for the next two years and raised its medium-term inflation expectations. [Russia Ready to Return to Black Sea Grain Export Agreement After Fulfilling Obligations to the West] Russian President Putin, in a phone call with Turkish President Erdogan on the 2nd, stated that Russia is ready to return to the Black Sea grain export agreement after fulfilling obligations to the West. According to the Russian President's website, Putin discussed matters related to the Black Sea grain export agreement, further development of Russia-Turkey relations, etc., in the phone call with Erdogan. Putin reiterated the reasons for Russia's withdrawal from the Black Sea grain export agreement and expressed that Russia is devising reliable grain supply plans, including gratuitous supply plans. He also expressed willingness to cooperate with Turkey and other countries in this field. Comment: Ukraine is known as the "breadbasket of Europe" and a major exporter of sunflower oil, corn, and wheat, typically supplying about 45 million tons of grain to the global market each year. The Black Sea grain export agreement is of significant importance to global food security. FPG Guest Analyst King's View: The gold market maintained volatile trading on Thursday, showing a chaotic trend. Although yesterday's data was bullish for gold, the overall data from the United States implied actions that the Federal Reserve might take in the future, suppressing the upward momentum of gold. Today, traders are awaiting important economic data, the US non-farm payroll report. Under economic uncertainty and the possibility of future interest rate cuts by central banks, the attractiveness of gold as a safe-haven asset further complicates the current market dynamics. Investors need to be prepared for potential volatility and exercise caution in navigating the gold market during this turbulent period. FPG Guest Analyst Dawson's View: Earlier, the downgrade of US credit ratings offset the impact of record declines in US crude oil inventories, but crude oil rebounded and closed higher after Saudi Arabia planned to extend the production cut agreement for another month. In terms of data, EIA crude oil inventories hit a new historical high, but the bulls took the opportunity to take profits near strong resistance levels, and the strengthening US dollar significantly weighed down oil prices. FPG Guest Analyst Dave's View: The GBP/USD is likely to continue its downward trend this week, as a result of the combined impact of rising US bond yields and a slightly dovish stance from the Bank of England. At the same time, based on the positioning of traders, they currently have a slight bearish view on the British Pound. If GBP/USD falls below the 1.27 level, which is where a large option expiration is due this week, the bearish sentiment could intensify. For GBP traders, it seems like an eventful day is ahead. FPG Guest Analyst Yuelin's View: On Thursday, the US stock market closed with little volatility as investors weighed the rise in US Treasury yields against the latest batch of economic data and earnings reports. The 10-year US Treasury yield rose to a high of 4.198%, the highest since November. In terms of data, initial jobless claims in the US rose slightly, while layoffs declined to an 11-month low. Despite the moderate increase in initial jobless claims last week, layoffs in July fell to the lowest level in 11 months due to ongoing tight labor market conditions. The above analysis is only for the views of market researchers and is for reference only and is not Regarded as a specific investment suggestion. #Forex #trading #tradingforex