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美国最终达成协议以避免违约的概率目前是很高的。 如果达成协议,那么今年下半年美国经济衰退的可能性是极其大的。 如果美国真濒临违约边缘,这个在短期内对美元是有利的。 如果真的发生违约,短期美元上涨,长期来看是则是利空。

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