FPG: The pressure of the global banking industry has intensified, and the market sentiment is wavering. Latest market news: 1. [The Swiss Central Bank is ready to “save” Credit Suisse] The Swiss Central Bank said that it will provide liquidity to Credit Suisse “if necessary” after the share price of Credit Suisse plummeted by 24%. The sell-off on Wednesday was triggered by Credit Suisse’s largest shareholder: Saudi National Bank. Saudi Arabia said it would not increase the capital of Credit Suisse. In the last quarter of 2022, Credit Suisse’s customers withdrew 111 billion Swiss francs (about 122 billion US dollars). Comments: Judging from the stock price performance of Credit Suisse after the news was announced, the market did not have any reaction to the news, and panic is still spreading. 2. [The biggest winner after the collapse of Silicon Valley Bank] Bank of America received more than $15 billion in deposits. In addition, JPMorgan Chase has absorbed billions of dollars in deposits, and Citigroup and Wells Fargo have also absorbed a lot of deposits. Comments: Under risk aversion, the deposits of small and medium-sized banks were transferred to large banks, and this progress also increased the pressure on the liquidity of small and medium-sized banks. 3. [U.S. Treasury Secretary Yellen: The U.S. banking system remains stable] U.S. Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen said at the Senate Finance Committee hearing that although the collapse of Silicon Valley banks and signature banks has caused market turmoil, the U.S. banking system “still remains stable as a whole.” However, she warned that if the crisis spread further, it could lead to the collapse of many banks and trigger a run. Comments: Does this imply that the Fed’s tightening rhythm will return to the logic of inflation in the future, but it is inevitable that the Fed’s interest rate hike will be more cautious in the future. 4. [Progress of the situation in Russia and Ukraine] The Russian Ministry of Defense issued a war report on the 16th, saying that the Russian army attacked Ukrainian soldiers in Donetsk, Zaporoje, Kherson and other directions, destroyed the Ukrainian army’s U.S.-made M777 artillery system and anti-artillery radar stations, etc., and equipped Multiple rockets were launched, destroying one Ukrainian MiG-29 fighter and 9 drones at the same time. Comments: The data shows that the overall speed of Russia’s operations in Ukraine seems to have decreased compared with the previous few weeks. 5. [European Central Bank raised interest rates by 50 basis points] The European Central Bank made it clear at the February interest rate meeting that it would raise interest rates by 50 basis points in March. Since then, European Central Bank President Lagaard has repeatedly publicly promised that the plan to raise interest rates by 50 basis points will not change. Because the preliminary data shows that the overall inflation rate in the euro area is 8.5%, which is much higher than the central bank’s target of 2%. Comments: It has triggered the market’s speculation about the movement of the Federal Reserve next week. Will the Federal Reserve also carry out a surprise attack? 6. [Saudi Arabia reiterates its decision to reduce production] On March 16, local time, Saudi Energy Minister Abdulaziz bin Salman and Russian Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Novak reiterated that the crude oil production reduction agreement reached by the two countries in the “OPEC+” framework will remain unchanged, that is, in 2 We will continue to fulfill our commitment to reduce production by 2 million barrels per day by the end of 023. Comments: After the news was announced, US oil and cloth oil soared by nearly $2 in an instant. 7. [British 500,000 strike] British Chancellor of the Exchequer Hunter announced the latest budget on the 15th. But on the same day, about 500,000 British public employees held a new round of general strike, demanding that the Treasury relax the money bag. The whole line of London subway is paralyzed! Comments: The slowdown in absolute employment and the decline in real wages may prompt the Bank of England to slow down the pace of interest rate hikes, but the UK is very uncomfortable for the European Union. Opinions of FPG Special Analyst Nanshi: The crisis in Silicon Valley has not been completely over. Credit Suisse thundered again on Wednesday. The whole incident triggered a heightened risk aversion, which pushed a large number of safe-averse purchases into gold and U.S. Treasury bonds. The short-term yield of 10-year bonds in the United States started a sharp drop after the 100-day average was blocked. If the If you lose the low point support, it will theoretically open a larger downward space, looking at 3-3.1%. Now it is less than a week before the Federal Reserve’s March meeting. If the banking crisis continues to ferment before the meeting, I’m afraid the Federal Reserve will be forced to choose to suspend interest rate hikes for a month to maintain financial stability and then continue to raise interest rates. If so, then there is still a chance for gold and silver to rise. FPG special analyst Dawson’s opinion: Japanese yen: Mitsubishi Japan Union economist said, “We may soon see the reason why the Federal Reserve will do nothing next week. At present, the risks faced by the market are extremely high. The continuous decline in the stock prices of European banks highlights the risk that this event has evolved into a more important event, which will have an impact on the risk sentiment and may mean that the United States will have a greater decline in the short term. We have a clear bearish tendency to the future prospects of the currency pair, and There are extraordinary fluctuations. FPG special analyst Dave’s opinion: Crude oil: At present, the crude oil market has strong expectations to be confirmed and weak reality support is limited. The market has certain doubts about short- and medium-term demand, and the macro risks will have a significant impact on oil prices. Macro risk will continue to be the biggest influencing factor in the short term. Under the premise that there is no systemic risk, whether strong expectations can become a strong reality needs to be verified by Chinese data. Therefore, China’s actual demand will be the primary indicator, followed by the confirmation of the marginal easing of U.S. monetary policy. The supply side continues to pay attention to Russia’s exports. The decline in supply will determine whether there will be a surplus in the short and medium-term crude oil market, and the changes in the geopolitical game will directly affect the pattern of supply in the energy market. Today’s long operation can see the target 70.50. FPG special analyst Yue Lin’s opinion: The news that Credit Suisse announced that it had received $53.7 billion in loans from the Swiss Central Bank and the First Republic Bank would receive a total of $30 billion in capital injections, which boosted market sentiment. At the same time, investors’ expectations of the Federal Reserve’s policy shift also pushed technology stocks to rise sharply, and U.S. stocks reversed the early decline and At present, the market has to reassess the expectations of the interest rate hike meeting, and many people have raised the possibility that the Federal Reserve will approve the interest rate increase by half a percentage point at its meeting from March 21 to 22. But after the shocking internal explosion of Silicon Valley banks disrupted the global market on Friday and raised concerns about a broader financial collapse, almost all market expectations believed that this was not possible. The above analysis is only for the views of market researchers and is for reference only and is not Regarded as a specific investment suggestion. #Forex #trading #tradingforex