FPG: Federal Reserve Powell hinted at raising interest rates again, but the market has absorbed most of the expectations before. Latest market news: 1. [Federal Reserve Powell hints at raising interest rates again] Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell made a two-day appearance on Capitol Hill this week, because Powell made it clear on the first day of his testimony on the Senate Banking Committee that interest rates need to be higher than expected and recover 50 basis points or 0.5. The interest rate hike by one percentage point was open, and the US dollar rose sharply. The next day, Powell continued to reiterate his hawkish stance, which shocked the dollar short. Comments: Although radical interest rate increases can curb high inflation, it also has to pay the price of a long-term recession. 2. [Job vacancies in the United States dropped to 10.8 million] The employment vacancy and labor mobility survey (JOLTS) released by the U.S. Department of Labor on Wednesday showed that the number of jobs in the United States in January fell to 10.8 million from the 11.2 million after last month. The economist’s median estimate is 10.5 million job vacancies. Comments: Despite the decline in the unemployment rate, the report emphasizes that the strong demand for workers far exceeds supply, which brings upward pressure on wages and inflation. 3. [The yield curve of 2–10-year U.S. bonds breaks the record for more than 40 years] The yield of 2-year U.S. Treasury bonds is more than 100 basis points higher than that of 10-year Treasury bonds for the first time since 1981. The yield of 2-year treasury bonds is as high as 4.9974%, which is more than 100 basis points higher than the 10-year yield. Comments: The core is the rare strong data of the job market + rare high inflation, which provides room for upside down. And the strong industry has also made this famous Yuan retreat indicator unable to realize the U.S. recession. 4. [Federal Reserve News Agency News March plus 50 basis points] On Wednesday, March 8, Nick Timiraos, a Wall Street Journal reporter who is regarded as the “Capital Reserve’s mouthpiece” and known as the “New Federal Reserve News Agency”, talked about Powell’s listening to the U.S. Congress on Tuesday and Wednesday. Zhengshi believes that the Federal Reserve may raise interest rates by 50 basis points in March. Comments: The market has basically included this possibility in the price. 5. [China’s oil imports plummeted] According to the data released in the day, the oil import volume from January to February was 10.44 million barrels per day, which was far lower than the level of previous months. In addition, China announced a growth target of 5% this year, which is lower than economists’ expectations, which is believed by market participants that this move may lead to the final growth of oil demand less than the previous forecast. Comments: Crude oil also suppressed bulls’ sentiment because the Federal Reserve may further tighten its policies. 6. [Progress in the situation between Russia and Ukraine] The Russian Ministry of Defense announced on the 7th that 90 detained Russian soldiers were released by the Ukrainian side on the same day. Ukrainian President Zelensky said on the same day that 130 detained Ukrainian soldiers were released by Russia. Comments: Russia and Ukraine exchanged detained personnel again. According to the details, most of the detainees given by Russia to Ukraine are women and children of Ukraine. It can be seen that there are very few warable soldiers in Ukraine. 7. [Chip stocks soared] On March 8, the three major U.S. stock indexes closed up and down. As of the close, the Dow fell 0.18% to 32798.4 points, the S&P 500 index rose 0.14% to 3992.01 points, and the Naser index rose 0.4% to 11576 points. Merck fell 2.7% and Travelers Group fell 1.46%, leading the Dow. Chip stocks rose, Intel rose 1.76%, NVIDIA rose 3.8%, and AMD rose nearly 4%. Comments: At present, there are few factors that can prevent the Federal Reserve from becoming more “hawkish”, unless the non-agricultural report this Friday and next Tuesday’s CPI data both slow down significantly. Opinions of FPG Special Analyst Nanshi: Yesterday, Powell continued to release the eagle to hint of raising interest rates, and the dollar rebounded to a 2023 high. Gold fell, but Wednesday’s short orders were not very eye-catching due to gold’s excessive digestion of expectations. The current commodity market is waiting for the non-agricultural employment data to confirm for the last time. If it corrobos Powell’s hawkish remarks, the U.S. dollar will rise for a longer period of time, but there will also be a sell-off caused by a profit-taking, reversing some of the recent trend. FPG special analyst Dawson’s opinion: The March meeting of the Bank of Japan is likely to keep the existing monetary policy unchanged, but the market still needs to pay attention to the possibility of the Bank of Japan adjusting its monetary policy. In the short term, if the Bank of Japan adjusts its monetary policy, it may combine and adjust the YCC. At the same time, it may also maintain the scale of debt purchases or strengthen forward-looking guidance from the perspective of maintaining the stability of the financial market. Today’s trading plan is short at the high point, the first pressure position is 137.750, and the target is 136.000. FPG special analyst Dave’s opinion: Crude oil: A group of bipartisan members of the U.S. Senate Judiciary Committee reintrod the “NOPEC” bill, allowing the federal government to take action against OPEC’s manipulation of stone oil prices to promote fairness and stability in the global oil market. Today’s operation strategy is much lower, with support position 75.5 and target position 78.5. FPG special analyst Yue Lin’s opinion: The U.S. labor market is still strong, but Powell reiterated that the end interest rate may be higher than expected, intensifying the market’s speculation that the Federal Reserve will maintain austerity monetary policy for a longer period of time. U.S. stocks closed up and down in a narrow range. U.S. bond market bets on the recession increased after Federal Reserve Chairman Powell warned of the possibility of a sharp increase in interest rate hikes. Swap traders expect the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates by about one percentage point in the next four meetings, and the yield of 2-year U.S. Treasury bonds reached 5.08% three times a week, the highest level since 2007. Importantly, the longer-term yield is still under pressure, the 10-year yield is less than 4%, and the 30-year yield is also falling. The U.S. bond yield curve is the most serious inversion since the Volcker period, and the ghost of a hard landing appears again. The above analysis is only for the views of market researchers and is for reference only and is not Regarded as a specific investment suggestion. #Forex #trading #tradingforex