FPG: The Federal Reserve will raise interest rates slightly in February, and the Iranian nuclear agreement will make new progress. Latest market news: 1. [The Federal Reserve will raise interest rates slightly in February] According to media reports, Fed officials are preparing for the second consecutive meeting to slow down the interest rate hike and debate the terminal interest rate. Previously, they had more confidence that inflation would further ease this year. In recent public speeches and interviews, Federal Reserve officials said that slowing down the interest rate hike to a more informative 25 basis points will give them more time to assess the impact of the interest rate hike so that they can decide where to stop the interest rate hike. Comments: The small interest rate increase in February is basically stable. This slow-paced adjustment will also give Fed policymakers more time to weigh the pros and cons and give future policies more flexibility. 2. [U.S. EIA Weekly Report] According to data released by U.S. EIA, crude oil inventories increased by 8.408 million barrels for the week ended January 13, an increase of 593,000 barrels in a row, with an increase of 59.36 million barrels and an increase of 18.962 million barrels in the previous value. During the week, EIA gasoline stocks increased by 3.483 million barrels, which increased for two consecutive weeks, exceeding expectations by 2.529 million barrels, with an increase of 4.114 million barrels before value. During the week, EIA refined oil inventory decreased by 1.393 million barrels in a row for three consecutive weeks, the largest decrease since the week of October 7, 2022; an expected increase of 12,200 barrels, with a previous decrease of 1.069,000 barrels. Comments: U.S. EIA crude oil stocks unexpectedly increased and jumped to the highest level in a year. Perhaps due to the impact of the winter storm, refineries resumed production faster after shutdown, but consumption was not synchronized. 3. [The output of the world’s second largest gold producer fell to a 22-year low] Barrick Gold failed to meet analysts’ expectations and its own goals due to operational problems, and its gold production fell to its lowest level since 2000 last year. . Comment: This provides a further reason for gold bulls. Investors are rushing to precious metals to resist the depreciation of the US dollar. 4. [The U.S. Department of Justice searched Biden’s house and found more confidential documents] According to Reuters and CNN, on the evening of January 21, local time, a lawyer of U.S. President Biden said in a statement that the U.S. Department of Justice’s visit to Wilmington, Delaware Deng’s house was searched and more confidential documents were found. Comments: Theoretically, according to the “rules” of the United States, this kind of thing is tacit, but as soon as it gave Trump the lead, the problem came. Some commentators believe that American politics has become Korean. 5. [German Foreign Minister: Germany is ready to ask Poland to aid Leopard tanks to Ukraine] According to AFP, German Foreign Minister Belburke said on Sunday that if Poland makes a request, Germany is ready to authorize Poland to send German-made “Leopard” tanks to Ukraine to help Kiev deal with the Russian army. Comment: Pistorius, Germany’s new defense minister, is a hawk. 6. [Fumio Kishida is considering visiting Ukraine in February or meeting with Zelensky] According to Japanese media newspapers quoted by Reuters, Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida is considering visiting Ukraine in February and holding talks with Ukrainian President Zelensky. It is reported that Fumio Kishida is the only leader in the G7 country who did not meet with Zelensky. Comment: As a third-party country, neutrality can profit the most, but as an alliance, you must have an attitude. 7. [Iran Foreign Minister: The parties to the Iranian nuclear negotiations are still exchanging information] Iranian Foreign Minister: The parties to the Iranian nuclear negotiations are still exchanging information. On the 22nd, Iranian Foreign Minister Abdullahyan said that the exchange of information between the parties to the comprehensive agreement on the Iranian nuclear issue is still in progress. He said that the negotiating parties have determined the steps to reach a final agreement, and Iran believes that one of these steps “will be implemented in the near future”. Comment: If there is a good result, it will be a critical blow to both Russia and oil prices. Analyst’s opinion: Nanshi, a special analyst at FPG, believes that: Gold continues to rise due to the decline in bond yields and fears of economic recession. The market seems to have digested the impact of the high probability of interest rate hikes at the next meeting of the Federal Reserve in advance. According to this inertia, market expectations are becoming weaker and weaker. If interest rates do not stop as quickly as expected, the price of gold is prone to plummet. Dawson, a special analyst at FPG, believes that: British pound: Britain’s overall inflation rate has fallen for two consecutive months, indicating that the economy may be going through the worst period. Bailey said in an interview with foreign media that this is a sign that the situation is beginning to improve. He said: “We think the most likely result is that inflation will decline rapidly this year and may start at the end of spring, which has a lot to do with energy pricing.” These remarks seem to indicate that Bank of England officials may be considering when to stop the fastest monetary tightening cycle in 30 years. Since December 2021, policymakers have raised key loan interest rates nine times to curb the squeeze on household budgets by soaring prices. Back intradays to observe the trend of the pound. Today’s trading strategy, I personally suggest that there are empty orders near 1.248. Let’s take a look at the target 1.23000. Dave, a special analyst at FPG, believes that: Crude oil: Last week, oil prices fell first and then rose, steadily above $81/barrel again. Large categories of assets fluctuated sharply overnight after the day, and market sentiment was unclear. At the same time, the recovery of API inventory data also partially strengthened the weakness of oil prices. Our view remains unchanged, believing that the oil price correction is limited, and the trend rebound is not over. The core logic is: First, the price difference between gasoline and diesel cracking at home and abroad is still strong. Second, the short-term global market is optimistic about the recovery of the Chinese market. Subjectively, we tend to be cautious about the trend of oil prices in the coming week. Today’s operation suggestion adopt the low point multi-making strategy, and the first support below is 80.5. Viewable target 83 The above analysis is only for the views of market researchers and is for reference only and is not Regarded as a specific investment suggestion. #Forex #trading #tradingforex