摩根大通：2023年全球经济增长预计将放缓，但衰退并非板上钉钉
摩根大通经济学家在一份报告中表示，由于金融状况收紧，以及即将到来的冬季加剧疫情防控问题和欧洲天然气问题，预计2023年全球经济扩张将放缓。不过，全球经济不会马上陷入衰退，因为不利的供给侧冲击正在迅速消退，这反映在2023年初全球通胀将滑向3.5%上。我们认为，排除能够避免衰退的软着陆的可能性是错误的，预计经济实现软着陆的可能性为20%。在这种情况下，疲弱的经济增长和供给侧冲击的消除足以在劳动力市场不会急剧恶化的情况下将通胀推低至2%
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