判断美国经济衰退压力上，3月期/10年期美债收益率倒挂比2年期/10年期更为准确，也是纽约联储衰退预测模型的主要参照。3个月利率与美联储基准利率高度一致，10年利率则受增长和通胀预期综合影响。
美国经济衰退是跑不掉了，这将助推黄金，虚拟数字货币的上涨，11月份12月份美国还有两次加息，明年加息力度将放缓，股市才有喘息的机会。
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