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智库分析 - 碗盘 10/19 通胀成因难判断,央行面临左右为难 黄金方面:当前市场普遍认为,全球供应链紧张导致的供需错配正在持续推高通胀,以至于全球各大央行决策者可能被迫提前做出应对,防止恶性通胀的出现。然而现在央行的决策者们面临左右为难的困境,因很难界定当前通胀的推动因素。 技术面:昨日(10月18日) 金价小跌0.16%收盘,符合大跌过后修复性行情特征。今早开盘金价一路上涨,截至目前涨幅超过15美元,到达1781美元附近的中继阻力位。美盘前如果能够突破该阻力,则晚间有望涨至1790美元水平。上方压力1789美元,下方支撑1765美元。 原油方面: OPEC+在增产方面表现出来的谨慎态度令全球能源供应缺口继续扩大。9月份OPEC+产量再次低于目标水平,这加剧了供应短缺情况。知情人士透露,OPEC+上月产量比计划低了15%,8月和7月分别比计划低1 6%和9%。 技术面:原油昨日冲高回落,日线图10月6日以来首次收阴。日线图收取反向K线,同时结合MACD高位背离累积,短线油价横盘或震荡下行的概率有所增加,重点关注81.40美元线。一旦下破,短线看80.60美元支撑。

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