“在好转之前会先恶化”的陷阱“在好转之前会先恶化”的陷阱是确认偏误的一种变体。一般来说，对专业一窍不通或对事情没有把握的人更常用到：如果情况继续走下坡路，就证明了他的预言是正确的；如果情况意外地回升了，他则可以将好转归功于他的能力。结论：如果有人说：“在好转之前会先恶化”，你脑子里就应该敲响警钟。不过请小心：确实有那样的情形，先是再次下滑然后回升。
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