铁矿石年底料跌破100美元/吨大关，将对澳元汇价产生连带拖累；① 摩根士丹利发布报告称，COMEX铁矿石价格在此前因需求旺盛而供给受限升至三位数高位之后，将因为供需关系的反转而回落。一方面，巴西和澳洲等地此前因为疫情受到影响的开采活动正在恢复，另一方面，随着天气的转冷和春节的来临，中国建筑开工率在年底将下降，对需求造成遏制；② 大摩因此预计，在今年四季度，COMEX铁矿石价格就将跌回100美元/吨以下水平。此后随着矿业产能的进一步恢复，到2021年底将跌至81美元/吨，而这将连带拖累商品系货币尤其是澳元汇价进一步走软，澳元兑美元后市短线有大概率承压跌至0.70这一关键心理关口下方
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