英国”硬脱欧“几率升至四成，恐将引发汇市巨震；① 业内机构丹斯克银行面对当前英国于欧盟新一轮过渡期谈判的进展，将双方无法达成协议导致英国最终在2021年初”无协议脱欧“的概率从原先的35%上调到40%，这意味着当前谈判顺利落幕的概率已经仅剩下六成；② 此前，欧盟谈判代表已经警告称，英国方面当前仅剩下两周时间把会谈进程从失败的悬崖边拉回来，因为可供进一步斡旋的时间已经越来有越有限。而一旦谈判破裂英国方面又仍不肯延长过渡期期限，明年1月1日英国将正式“硬脱欧”；③ 一旦英国发生硬脱欧，欧元兑英镑汇价将会飙升至0.97，而这意味着英镑兑美元也会跌回2019年9月的低点1.19，相比当前回落10%
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