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本次三大机构最新公布的月报中,普遍对非OPEC供给大幅下修,但对于需求,EIA与OPEC继续大幅下修,前期已经较为悲观的IEA本次上修了需求。从三大机构平衡表来看,市场普遍的共识是供需将在三季度出现拐点,由于OPEC减产兑现和非OPEC减产,油市将会在三季度从供过于求转为供不应求,进而实现从累库到去库的转变。图表上原油突破楔形形态后多头开始放量,录得四连阳,且习惯获利回吐的原油在上周五隔夜美盘改变谨慎态度,持续上涨,说明当下市场情绪已经明显偏向多头,油价后市或继续维持震荡偏强格局,思路上建议以低多对待。

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