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$EUR/USD$ 欧洲时段,英镑兑美元大涨超0.6%,创六周新高至1.2385,首先英国央行分析排除了实施负利率的选项,其次脱欧延期法案将在今日晚些时候成为法律,排除了10月31日前无协议脱欧的可能,叠加英国7月GDP月率及7月工业产出向好,缓和了市场对英国经济陷入技术性衰退的忧虑,均为英镑提供支撑。英国7月GDP月率上涨0.3%,为1月以来最大增幅,高于预期,打破了此前有关英国可能迎来经济衰退的忧虑情绪。高盛指出,将有协议脱欧的可能性从45%上调至55%,将英国无协议脱欧的可能性从25%下调至20%;将不脱欧的可能性从30%下调至25%。 欧洲时段,欧元兑美元探底回升至1.1050附近,德国政府表示,如有必要,德国可能会调整预算,增加公共投资,德国考虑创建“影子预算”以在超过国家债务规定限制的情况下增加公共投资。ING的分析师指出,如果美欧双方在以汽车关税为首的各项贸易议题上仍然没有突破,欧元区经济将在年内剩余时间里进一步恶化,一旦如此,欧洲央行将被迫提前加大宽松措施力度。这将意味着欧元兑美元仍有进一步下行空间。

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