The effectiveness of the Federal Reserve's communication seems clear. The market has nearly 90 bp of tightening discounted here in Q2. This means that after a 25 bp hike to initiate the tightening cycle, the labor market's strength will allow the central bank to accelerate the pace. By the end of th

Russia's invasion of Ukraine and the unprecedented sanctions and private sector decoupling are unleashing forces that slow growth and exacerbate price pressures. As a result, the geopolitical crisis has become a key force shaping the economic climate. Commodity prices, energy, metals, and foodstuff

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