News that the US and China will start trade talks this weekend has Brent crude trading higher, extending a relief rally in oil yesterday. Talks would be a sign of potential de-escalation in trade tensions. Yet while negotiations would help improve sentiment in the oil market, we’ll need to see significant progress on lowering tariffs to improve the demand outlook, ING's commodity experts Ewa Manthey and Warren Patterson note.
OPEC+ to continue with aggressive supply hikes
"In addition, the supply side looks increasingly more comfortable due to the aggressive supply hikes from OPEC+. This is particularly so toward the latter part of the year, when the oil surplus is expected to grow. Clearly, the risk to this view is OPEC+ reversing policy once again."
"We’d have to see members who’ve consistently produced at above target levels start adhering to their targets. Kazakhstan is reportedly considering its options to meet targets. Our oil balance assumes OPEC+ continues with aggressive supply hikes through the third quarter, in line with increases announced for May and June."
"American Petroleum Institute numbers, released overnight, were fairly constructive. US crude inventories fell by 4.49m barrels over the last week, while stocks at the West Texas Intermediate (WTI) delivery hub, Cushing, fell by 854k barrels. For refined products, gasoline inventories fell by 1.97m barrels. Distillate stocks grew by 2.24m barrels."
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