GBP/USD: An intra-month drop to 1.1750 is possible – ING
The BoE's Sterling trade-weighted index has stayed on the soft side of narrow ranges during October. Economists at ING analyze GBP outlook ahead of the Bank of England meeting.
EUR/GBP could trade up to 0.90 next summer
We doubt a hawkish hold will have much impact on Sterling.
We still have a year-end EUR/GBP forecast at 0.87 and a view that it could trade up to 0.90 next summer as the market shifts to pricing a more traditional BoE easing cycle.
One further point is that GBP/USD is showing a reasonably high positive correlation with US equities, and warns that Sterling can underperform a little more if the equity sell-off picks up steam. Our baseline assumes GBP/USD ends the year at 1.22, but an intra-month drop to 1.1750 is possible if conditions in global equity markets were to deteriorate further.
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