Week Ahead in FX (May 9 – 13): Light Week With U.S. Inflation & OPEC

After last week’s busy run, things might slow down this week since mostly mid-tier reports are on deck.

But before that, ICYMI, I’ve written a quick recap of the market themes that pushed currency pairs around last week. Check it!

And now for the potential market movers this time:

Major Economic Events:

OPEC meetings (starting May 11) – With crude oil prices rallying again lately, all eyes and ears are on the OPEC to see if the cartel will be making much-needed adjustments to output.

Recent remarks from energy officials suggest that member nations are open to boosting production targets, but their hands are tied due to capacity constraints.

However, the looming EU fuel embargo on Russia threatens to spark another sharp climb in crude oil that the cartel might be pressured to act. An actual agreement to increase output levels might be enough to keep the commodity’s gains in check for now.

U.S. CPI (May 11, 12:30 pm GMT) – After posting strong price pressures in the past months, the U.S. CPI report might reflect subdued gains for April.

Headline CPI could print a 0.2% uptick for the month, following the earlier 1.2% surge, while the core reading could show a 0.4% increase.

Stronger than expected results could continue to lift Fed tightening hopes and the U.S. dollar.

U.S. PPI (May 12, 12:30 pm GMT) – Producer price pressures are also expected to slow down in April, with the headline PPI likely to come in at 0.5% and the core figure to post a 0.6% uptick.

This follows the previous month’s 1.4% surge in headline producer prices and 1.0% increase in core PPI.

Forex Setup of the Week: USD/CAD

This pair has been moving sideways for quite some time, but it looks like a breakout attempt is taking place.

Will USD/CAD make it this time?

Price is testing the resistance around the 1.2900 handle, with the moving averages hinting at a potential bullish break.

If that happens, the pair might be in for a rally that’s the same height as the range. That’s 500 pips yo!

Stochastic is reflecting exhaustion among buyers, though, so there’s still a chance the ceiling might hold. In that case, USD/CAD might slump back to nearby support areas like the middle of the range around 1.2700.

The upcoming OPEC meeting would likely have an impact on crude oil and the correlated Loonie, as an increase in production targets might keep a lid on rallies or even spark losses.