Earlier previews of the Bank of Japan monetary policy meeting are here:
- Most economists expect the BOJ's next move is further easing - but not yet
- Bank of Japan monetary policy announcement due September 19 - preview
- BOJ officials reportedly said to see the need to keep a lower limit on yields
- BOJ may be more open to debating additional easing next week - report
- BOJ may be shifting closer to further easing
- 5 Reasons why the BOJ may cut rates & change framework - Nomura
Adding this via Daiwa:
- outcome of this meeting is more uncertain than other policy-setting meetings this week
- At face value, the economic backdrop - with recent releases on the whole pointing to softer economic momentum and weaker inflation - would appear to have strengthened the case for additional easing. But while BoJ Governor Kuroda recently noted in a Nikkei newspaper interview that "We're considering a variety of possibilities, including combinations of [measures] and improved versions", it remains doubtful that the Bank will feel inclined to pull the trigger on new stimulus just yet. Certainly, there would be great reluctance to cut the policy rate from the current -0.10% level for concerns the so-called reversal rate has been reached.
- And the past week's moves in financial markets - with 10Y JGB yields having returned to within the BoJ's informal target range (+/-0.20%) and the yen depreciating back through ¥108/$ - would also allow it a little more time to sit tight as far as yield curve control is concerned.
- Reports on Friday suggested that BoJ officials favour setting a floor to the 10Y JGB yield around -0.30%, with any sustained shift or surge below that level prompting consideration of further action However, any action this week might only be limited to a mere amendment of the Policy Board's forward guidance, which currently states that "the Bank intends to maintain the current extremely low levels of short- and long-term interest rates for an extended period of time, at least through around spring 2020". Of course, if and when demand weakens following next month's consumption tax hike, substantive easing might well prove harder to resist.
That final episode of Survivor was a good one. Kuroda brought it home strong. Reprinted from Forexlive，the copyright all reserved by the original author.
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