Coming up on 20 June 2019 is the Bank of England's Monetary Policy Committee decision.
Some thoughts on what to expect.
Via Citi:
- The BOE raised GDP expectations across the forecast horizon earlier. A Brexit deal (or longer extension) is a likely precondition to any hike in 2019. However, the political backdrop remains the biggest risk to GBP
- We no longer see a Bank Rate hike in August or indeed this year as likely, as no-deal could become a bigger risk quickly, with the dovish wind blowing through global monetary policy. This will likely be GBP-negative
Via Rabobank
- vote is likely to be unanimous
- even as a number of influential MPC members have made some relatively hawkish speeches recently
- hawks are focusing on decent wage growth amid low unemployment, but the warnings with regards to rate increases are falling on deaf ears
- The downside risks resulting from Brexit and trade uncertainties outweigh the upside risks of slightly elevated domestic price pressures
- We forecast no rate hikes for this year and next
Earlier:
- Bank of England meet this week - preview
- The Fed meeting (and BOE and BOJ meetings) highlights the week
- BOE preview from UBS: Expect a unanimous vote to hold at 0.75%
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