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法兴:如果美元/人民币冲7 欧元/美元或跌破1.11

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FX168财经报社(香港)讯 法国兴业银行研究部周一(5月20日)讨论了目前中美贸易冲突中的市场环境。

主要观点

政治因素正驱动外汇市场:欧盟选举、中美贸易关系的紧张程度都在升级。中美贸易磋商的破裂令投资者担忧,美元/人民币的上升也如是。舔舐伤口是今日市场的主题。

如果美元/人民币继续向着7上涨,我们怀疑欧元/美元本周会跌破1.11,实际上,美元/日元也有可能回归109。

美元和日元被看涨,风险资产(包括欧元/美元和新兴市场货币)则被看跌。如果欧元/美元再破低位,英镑/美元也将可以肯定会持续目前的跌势。

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