February 2026 looks set for mixed moves amid Fed pauses, geopolitical jitters, and shifting yields. The U.S. dollar holds firm on resilient growth, but risks loom from tariffs and elections. Overall, I favor safe-havens like gold while eyeing volatility in energy and crypto.
Global factors will dominate: steady U.S. rates contrast dovish ECB and BoJ, boosting carry trades. Oil oversupply weighs heavy, but Middle East tensions could spark spikes. Bitcoin's halving echoes fade, leaving it vulnerable to sentiment shifts.
USD/JPY: Yen Weakness Lingers with Intervention Risks
USD/JPY starts February around 153, poised for choppy upside as yield gaps favor the dollar. BoJ's dovish hold keeps pressure on yen, but snap elections add uncertainty. Watch for dips if risk-off hits.
- Bull drivers: U.S. exceptionalism, carry flows targeting 155-157.
- Bear watch: Tokyo's red line at 160 triggers potential yen buys.
- Monthly target: 152-156 range, averaging 154.
EUR/USD: Euro Stabilizes but Dollar Dominance Caps Gains
EUR/USD hovers near 1.1850, eyeing modest recovery if ECB eases aggressively. U.S. strength limits upside, with tariffs threatening eurozone exports. Consolidation likely amid data flow.
- Upside catalysts: Weaker U.S. jobs data pushes to 1.20.
- Downside risks: Hawkish Fed rhetoric drags to 1.17.
- February forecast: 1.18-1.195 range, midpoint 1.187.
Oil (WTI): Oversupply Pressures Persist
WTI trades around $62, facing headwinds from non-OPEC growth outpacing demand. Seasonal weakness amplifies declines, but geo-flares offer brief rallies. Bearish bias dominates.
- Key pressures: Shale boom, soft China demand.
- Potential lifts: Supply disruptions hit $65-70.
- Monthly outlook: $58-64 average, low at $56.
Gold (XAU/USD): Safe-Haven Pullback Sets Up Rebound
Gold at $4500 pulls back from highs, but inflation hedges and uncertainties fuel demand. Central bank buys underpin, with volatility from yields. Expect a bounce mid-month.
- Support drivers: Debt fears, AI bubbles.
- Targets: $4700-4800 if risk-off intensifies.
- February range: $4400-4650, averaging $4525.
Silver (XAG/USD): Industrial Demand Meets Volatility
Silver near $80 eyes recovery on solar/EV boosts, but mirrors gold's retreat. Supply crunches add upside potential, tempered by recession risks. Neutral-to-bullish stance.
- Catalysts: Green tech surge, mining issues.
- Risks: Economic slowdown caps at $75.
- Monthly forecast: $78-85 range, midpoint $81.
Bitcoin (BTC/USD): Consolidation Before Next Leg
Bitcoin around $78K consolidates post-dip, with ETF flows and adoption key. Oversold signals hint at squeeze, but macro drags loom. Watch for $80K test.
- Bull factors: Institutional FOMO, halving lag.
- Bear traps: Dollar strength pulls to $70K.
- February target: $75K-82K, averaging $78.5K.
Takeaway: February favors dollar pairs and havens amid uncertainty—buy dips in gold/silver, fade oil rallies. What's your top trade for the month?
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